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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (50494)1/3/2013 11:03:51 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78752
 
WU: The bear case pretty much relies on the rapid spread of the lower margins and lower volumes across all channels mostly due to higher online payment penetration. (There's more to it, but this is main idea).

Bull case is that unbanked customers cannot use purely online payments (at least one side has to be an agent), therefore online payment spread is not as fast or pervasive as bears expect. Banking fees are adding to hidden cost of banked/online transfers (although some people may ignore/not-understand hidden costs). Anti-drug/terrorism regulations are a wash: WU gains from them since weaker competitors will have hard time adhering to them, but loses from them since they have to supervise/choose agents more closely thereby losing attractive locations/agents.

As I said before, I am holding to my position. I may add if stock drops below $12 without adverse news again.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (50494)2/4/2013 11:14:31 AM
From: gcrispin  Respond to of 78752
 
I imagine Xoom is one of the bear talking points regarding WU. Xoom spends significant advertising dollars on Spanish speaking television in the Southern California area. The links below suggest that they are growing very rapidly though still unprofitable. Regardless, their presence, I believe, has caused WU to lower their prices in the Mexican corridor.

economist.com

xoom.com

allthingsd.com

online.wsj.com