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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (201291)	1/5/2013 12:26:23 PM
From: zax	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Between Dec 15th and today, did this pattern turn from being "unsupported speculation" into a "*a decided, unbroken, major downtrend…*"?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (201291)	1/5/2013 12:55:23 PM
From: robert b furman	5 Recommendations Respond to of 209892

Hi Henry, Full disclosure - I've never owned appl stock. Reading your current analysis strikes me as a very normal individual stock action. It is the action of churn or distribution. Stocks that take wonderful runups , seem to tease late players who have bought in late.The stock always looks like it is ready to bust up into new highs - but it is just a tease new highs remain elusive. At these new high zones supply keeps coming by those who have bought in earlier as they ring the bell with nice big fat profits. For the overall market to out perform the price action of aapl is a good omen for the overall market. The overall market is benefitting from rotation. No doubt some of that big money taken out of appl is finding new equities. For the market to be in a wave 3 - we should see small caps participating and breadth - something that did not happen during aapls meteoric rise. Many new highs vs just a few (incl aapl's almost daily ). These distribution phases take a long time.They give continuous hope almost confidence. In 1999 - 2000 what I CALL THE FINAL 5 WAVE, TECH RAN UP TREMENDOUSLY AS THE ADV DECL LINE HAD BEEN SHOWING WEAKNESS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. I don't think we're anywhere near that now. I don't think it hard to envision aapl as entering a distribution phase - with many very playable swings.Actually those 5 wave swings are the fastest and great opportunities for the nimble. Just a thought that reading your excellent analysis of aapl's action prompted me to recall. It is a very positive message. It is that rotation is with in the market - that is the necessary requirement for a great bull market to continue. Thanks for all you do. Bob

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (201291)	1/5/2013 11:06:52 PM
From: Tapcon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Hi Henry, Your chart shows a very clean and significant downtrend. But I'm also looking at the RSI's positive divergence you also flagged on that chart. So it looks like there are some conflicting signals there. From your experience, would you generally (or always) view the trend line as the most dominant criterion, and relegate the RSI positive divergence to a minor or less significant role? Or maybe if AAPL does break above the trend line, the RSI that you show would be viewed as a confirming signal?