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To: SJS who wrote (4321)12/3/1997 11:11:00 AM
From: The Perfect Hedge  Respond to of 95453
 
Great question!GD



To: SJS who wrote (4321)12/3/1997 11:17:00 AM
From: Thean  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
We had the rally we all hope for. Remember, the real result will hinge on the close today. If the market closes now, we are in very good shape. If things retreat from here without further buying, then I would stay neutral again.

Just think of the optimistic scenario for a minute - if we indeed close 4-5% higher today, the immediate future will be very good indeed and we should have a gap up tomorrow according to past history because this would be a technical confirmation of a rebound. So, if things look good 15 minutes before close today, I would seriously think about taking up positions before the boat leaves. The risk/reward favors rewards at that point. I'm already fully invested so I'm beginning to smile.

BUT, just be realistic, if things turn sour by afternoon, I'd take some short term profit and count it as good short term trade. Be realistic and not get carried away.



To: SJS who wrote (4321)12/3/1997 11:33:00 AM
From: Brad Hill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Steve--I'm emerging from lurk mode to agree with your skepticism. I had my finger on the option trigger this morning, but the developing candlestick is making me pause. Today's big gap up is creating filled and unfilled stars for many of these companies, practically begging for a retracement to fill in the gap later this week. I might be wrong--looking back on the charts, I see times when similar stars and hammers have been disregarded in the mad rush upward.

One strategy is to step into bullish positions gradually. Today I shifted more money into Fidelity Select Energy Service, and will continue with further blocks of cash as the anticipated upgrade announcements tart coming in (as in Bly's scenario). I may take a small call option position toward the end of today's session, then step more seriously into Jan and Apr calls in the coming days and weeks.

One good way to see the forest despite the trees today--look at the weekly charts. There's a lot of upside ground to cover. Best to avoid impatience and impulsiveness in this situation.

-- Brad