Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1734)	12/3/1997 11:45:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

Arik, I am not dismissing the possibility of your scenario b, which is endorsed by rarebird, who is now an Intel bull, and Nosty. This rally is unlike the one we saw in May - it has no breadth. Don't ignore the affect of earnings warnings this time, which are by no means over. Above all, there is always a possibility of something stupid being done by Federal reserve or BOJ or both. The situation is much more complex than hulding a support or resistance. BTW, is that your talking or your positions? -Mohan

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1734)	12/3/1997 4:31:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 5676

ATG, flying high with feathered friends could be dangerous - remember Icarus -g- >>>Rarebird, Nosty and myself are now saying essencially the same thing: new highs and a crash next year <<< November looks very similiar to September. Could December look very similar to October (starting off that way) In October it was the Flu, in December could be the earnings pneumonia. Bring on Dow 8300 by the 7th. bb

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1734)	12/4/1997 8:19:00 PM
From: Stingray	Respond to of 5676

Hi Arik, yes I remember your scenario 'B'. As the fundamentals continue to deteriorate the only thing keeping this market afloat is momentum. I am also a convert to this theory since we are getting to the end of the expansionary phase of the business cycle, the fallout from the currency crisis is going to cut into profits and the public is not going to be able to pour enough money into the market in 1998 to keep it moving ever upwards. I have no idea how high we can go from here but I don't think there is more than a few months left, possibly a lot less before the market falls apart. As I've said in previous post I really like leaps on overpriced and non volatile stocks. I picked up 6 VTMIs today, this is a January 1999 put on AT+T with a strike price of 45 (cost me 1 9/16 each). Haven't figured out my target price for them yet but I need to do so and write it in my notebook because like you I tend to do better when I follow a strategy than when I react to the market.