Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Collaboration - Team Research for Better Returns: -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert O who wrote (1382)	1/9/2013 3:59:20 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8239

I think the market would be a lot higher (3% to 10%) if it weren't for the fiscal cliff fiasco. Certainly, the US markets are in much better shape than most of the world, IMO. Maybe Japan might be considered more undervalued that the US? I don't expect the market to leap higher but I favor the grind up over the massive dump at this point in time. I think the lows we saw in Nov. were close to washout lows in many stocks I've been tracking. I know the fear factor wasn't showing up in RtS's charts. I wonder if a new catalysts for the upward movement might be if AAPL finally blows away earnings, like they did last January. By many metrics, AAPL is dirt cheap, growing earnings over 20% yoy and having a forward PE of 9. Warm weather, relative to the norm, has been keeping Nat. Gas in check. This is also helping a number of sectors keep costs down. Lastly, I was struck again today by the negativity portrayed in the media, especially on TV. I am often amazed at the venom and vitriol coming from the news media, who are too intent on telling us how to think rather than simply presenting the news (or the different opinions and letting us decide for our selves what to take away from "The Story"). JMO TO

To: Robert O who wrote (1382)	1/10/2013 1:32:22 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8239

Short Term to Intermediate Indicators. It's best to be cover shorts and enter long positions on cross overs of green lines. Best to go short on cross overs of the red lines and or exit long positions. The first set of charts for market timing the SMH are based on using the NASDAQ New Highs and similar indexes are shown here. To go long: First wait for the NASDAQ New Highs to set a new low and reverse itself from an approach of the lower Bollinger Band. To go short: Wait for the NASDAQ new highs and other similar new high indices to set a new high print at, near, or above the upper Bollinger Band. I am also now using the NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator (Ratio Adjusted) $NAMO) to confirm the above - Overbought above 25 - Oversold below -25. These charts do not fully update until after market close. Short Term Indicators vs. the SMH; any index can be used - The first set of short term indicators I use are based on the put to call ratio. To go long it is best to wait for the put to call ratio to close over 1.0. On the chart below the put to call ratio now updates intraday but it is not always accurate! Intraday reading of the put to call ratio can be found here updated every half hour after the open: cboe.com The more days in a row the put to call ratio prints over 1.0 this the more likely the bottom will be a strong one. The link above shows intraday readings of the P/C ratio. Also closes on the put to call ratio below 0.50 and sometimes a bit above are indicative of a short term top. Watch the simple moving averages as well because periods of too much buying of puts or calls will almost certainly bring about market bottoms and tops respectively. On the CPC/VIX ratio; this is largely a longer term indicator where investors are likely to make more money on the long side once the short-term 21 day sma has crossed above the 200 day sma. The reverse is true as well. An investor will likely make more money on the short side when the 21 day sma crosses below the 200 day sma: Next I use the VIX, VXO and VXN (Fear Indices) because they can help to refine decision making on tops and bottoms upon reverses from upper or lower Bollinger Bands especially when the index stretches more than 10% above or below its 10 day simple moving average. When a volatility index stretches more than 10% above or below its 10 day sma it will generally reverse direction as will the market in general in the opposite direction. Also TRIN and TRINQ readings on the 5 and 10 day simple moving averages over 1.5 are bullish while readings below 0.85 are bearish. These readings don't happen often especially with the 10 day sma. They are also early indicators so the market can continue higher or lower for a while but they are reliable for indicating market turns that are about to take place.

To: Robert O who wrote (1382)	1/10/2013 1:33:53 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Respond to of 8239

VIX, VXO and VXN on 6 Month Charts versus the S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ and SMH: 3 Year Weekly Charts

To: Robert O who wrote (1382)	1/10/2013 1:41:27 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8239

VIX Hits Lowest Level Since June 2007 Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 10:38AM The VIX "fear index" has plummeted since the Fiscal Cliff issue was "resolved," and this morning it hit its lowest level since June 20th, 2007. While the VIX is certainly low here, it's not unprecedented. As shown below, for three years from 1992 through 1995, the VIX traded in a range right around its current level. The same occurred during the mid-2000s bull market in 2005 and 2006. If there's a line in the sand for the VIX, it looks to be right around 10. While the VIX has dipped below 10 briefly in the past, it hasn't stayed there for long. bespokeinvest.com My chart above. RtS