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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (8219)	1/10/2013 11:07:19 AM
From: FJB	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9255

RE:The pricey 920 has received a strong reception in Germany and is off to a promising start in China. But in order to get its Lumia volumes above 10 M per quarter credibility threshold, Nokia needs solid value models with wide geographic appea. Getting the Lumia 920 available on more than ATT in the US would probably help volumes too. There are still a lot of people getting the top of the line, especially when they are subsidized.

To: Eric L who wrote (8219)	1/14/2013 2:19:25 PM
From: Eric L	1 Recommendation Respond to of 9255

(More on) Nokia's Upside Surprise ... I have a minor quibble with 2 sentences in the Forbes article by Tero Kuittinen I recently posted and praised about the upside surprise ... "There were two key numbers in Nokia’s press release today: Lumia volume of 4.4 M units and Asha volume of 9.3 M units. The Asha number proves that the global demand for relatively expensive, 60-90 euro feature phones is still solid." When referring to Asha volumes he is really referring to the new Full Touch Asha 'smartphones' (a product of Nokia's internal Clipper Program which included the ill fated Meltemi project). These new 'smartphones' as Nokia now refers to them (or 'smarter' feature phones a la Samsung's Bada which is evidently being subsumed by Tizen) represent only the higher end portion of Nokia's revitalized Series 40 Asha range which forms the second pillar (connecting the next billion) of Nokia's product strategy. The Full Touch Ashas which along with lower end WP 7.5/7.8 Lumias compete on a lower smartphone tier with lower end Androids running OS 2.3x Gingerbread that really are not upgradeable beyond that OS level. Nokia Devices and Services (D&S) 'Smartphone' Unit Sell-In (sales into distribution channels) D&S Business Smartphone % of % of Unit QoQ % QoQ Segment Models Q3 2012 Mix Q4 2012 Mix Growth Growth ============= ================= ======= ===== ======= ===== ======== ====== Mobile Phones Full Touch Ashas 6.5m 51% 9.3m 58% +2.8m +43% Smart Devices WP7.5/WP8 Lumias 2.9m 23% 4.4m 28% +1.5m +52% Smart Devices Symbian 3 (Belle) 3.4m 26% 2.2m 14% -1.2m -54% ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- Total Smartphones: 12.8m 100% 15.9m 100% +3.1m +24% Nokia's total mobile device unit volume in Q3 2012 was 82.9m. Smartphones (or smartphones + smarter feature phones if one prefers) constituted 19% of that volume. Smart Devices (Windows Phone + Symbian) smartphone volumes increased only marginally QoQ in the seasonally strong Q4 from 6.3 million devices in Q3 to 6.6m (+0.3m, +5%) with supply constraints hampering the volume sell-in of the WP8 Lumias but Nokia's total smartphone volumes including the full touch (high end) of the Series 40 Asha range which only started shipping in volume in Q3 increased 24% from 12.8 million to 15.9 million (+3.1 million units) in Q4. Nokia 'Smartphone' volumes from Q2 2009 forward are shown in this graphic by the AAWP team ... Despite what will be a highly competetive quarter ahead it would appear that Q3 2012 marked the trough of Nokia smartphone shipments and that fact and the return to (slight) non-IFRS profitability on the back of improved margins appear to be the primary reasons for NOK's CYTD 12.4% share price increase (and the 16% increase for NOK1V) through Friday's close of the 1st few weeks of the new calendar year. NOK1V.HE has traded above €3.00 since December 18 and NOK ADSs have traded above $4.00 (most days) on NYSE since that date. There certainly has been a noticeable change in market sentiment and the question of course is whether or not that sentiment will carry forward. Personally I'm betting real dollars that it will over the medium to long haul. Nokia's recovery is in progress. - Eric L. -