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Biotech / Medical : BSD Medical (Long Term Investment Oriented) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (62)	1/12/2013 12:30:05 PM
From: pleonastic	Respond to of 178

>Loss of $2.2M, slightly less on cash flow. If nothing changes there are due for a secondary within 6 months or so. You cannot wait until you are down to your last million before doing the secondary. If things are looking up, they would want to defer the secondary until they could get a better price per share.< Yes, to all. But, things ARE changing rapidly – though they are reporting this without enough details for the progress to be clear. They just keep mentioning large increases – like well over 500% (which does check, BTW) -- over the prior year’s periods; which prior periods showed meager sales for the MTX line. I suspect they are being evasive about the actual numbers for the FPU plan because the immediate response – as measured the disposable antenna sales ($2000/ea) – was relatively large (about 100 per month over the immediate 90 days, as indicated in the 7 Aug 2012 Webinar). But that initial rate apparently dropped off a lot. There is a logical explanation for a temporary drop off: It took something like a year to establish and implement the FPU sales program (sales reps needed to be engaged and trained and supplied – which probably included a mfg-capacity ramp). During that time, there was surely much inquiry and discussion with the prospective hospitals and doctors, so I think some “pent-up” demand was established, leading to an initial sales surge. So, what was the average sales rate for the antennas during the last reported Q? From some discussion on the IV MB, I think it was something like three dozen per month. While still small, this is a very large %-age jump over the sales before the FPU program was started (and is yet implemented over only a fraction of the U.S.). OK, now it’s time for marketing theory to take command! J The small percentage of bold pioneers have begun using the new tech; and the next level, the less-bold pioneers, will now be trying the new tech – and so forth. Since doctors tend to be conservative, not pioneers, this can take a while. >The big question is how this quarter's sales of MicroThermX products is shaping up in comparison to last quarter's. No hint on that.< The key facts are still a) that the MTX-180 is – from theory and from reported results from trials –a break-thru product; b) specifically far better than the present market-leading competing tech; and c) cost competitive, overall, as well. So, the final outcome is reasonably assured, and it promises to be LARGE. >They stated: "We recently shipped a new BSD-500 Hyperthermia System and we currently have additional sales backlog of four hyperthermia systems which we will deliver in fiscal 2013,” said Harold Wolcott, President of the Company. “We are encouraged by the progress we have made in our MicroThermX® Microwave Ablation System (“MicroThermX®”) business. We experienced a 586% increase in sales for the MicroThermX® product line for the fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2012, as compared to the fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2011." The reported Q also had outright sales of 5 MTX-180 systems! -- about $40,000 each. But, there were zero sales for the larger systems in the Q. However, the new contracts with China and others include specified minimums of about 3 times more than prior sales in the Asian areas. This implies a new average of about 1 sale per month. There are now also some additional contracts with other countries around the world (no sales yet). These things add up to an expected large increase in overall sales for the large systems during the remainder of the 2013 FY (ending 31 AUG). The Asian sales have been delayed due to needing new/renewed government approvals – these countries have “FDA”s, also – and the approvals are near. Perhaps we will see a “surge” in sales for the Asian areas when these approvals are granted. According to Page 14 of the 10Q, the renewal for China has just been granted: "We have also obtained regulatory approval for the sale of the BSD-2000 in the People’s Republic of China”. So, while the latest 10Q is unimpressive, it is NOT indicative of what the rest of FY 2013 is likely to show. Good time to buy, IMO.