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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (49011)	1/11/2013 4:32:13 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70695

SP500 survived the initial test of the old high and moved higher on accelerating volume. I would have liked to see a little more volume, but higher volume than today on the confirmation day tomorrow would confirm that the index will continue to move higher. Keep in mind we are in the midst of earning season so the indices will react to earning related news, so large intra-day move are to be expected. Right now the trend is your friend and the short term term is up, the intermediate trend is sideways and the long term trend is only modestly bullish. Similar condition on the DOW , but note that it still has not set a new high. It looks like it should make an attempt at it in the next few days though. The DOW transports would support the move to a new high as it has already set a new high. DOW transports continue to power to new high with the corresponding increase in volume it needed to show conviction on the part of traders. COMPQ is faltering as it failed to break out of the range of the last few days like the other indices. It look like it will not move higher without the catalyst of big earnings from one closely followed component stocks. Russell 2000 index feeling a little heavy as it failed to break the tight range of the last few days and volume has dried up. It need to catalyst of earnings to move it up. There may be some sector rotation happening also. Finanicals moving higher on accelerated volume and it has set a new high again. The momentum looks like it will move higher. Energy sector losing moment. It will need news to move it higher in a significant way. Note this is one of the lagging sectors like technology. Gold has negated the long term sell signal but it has not triggered a buy signal. Short term and intermediate term it is still on a sell signal. The current move looks more like a technical bounce from an oversold condition. Natural gas seeing an oversold bounce. It still remains on a sell signal. Interestingly it looks like the old economy stocks are leading this rally with the exception of commodity stocks. Watch for signs that the world economies are entering a more mute period of growth with lower but more stable commodity prices (Oil at $65 and natural gas at sub $3.00 levels???) If the US devalues it currency to get out of its debt problem having energy independence means prices will rise less quickly in US dollar terms. One check in the plus column as it would mean inflation will be more contained for basic goods. One of the important reasons to have a strong domestic energy and food supply when you are trying to engineer a currency devaluation policy. Governments don't change dramatic when the population can at least afford the basics of life.