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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (2657)	1/13/2013 1:03:42 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4720

I completely understand why you would be targeting 53. The 6 month chart on JOY shows steady pops and retraces. This latest pop, if it were to back off here, wouldn't surprise me in the least. There is a lot of resistance in the chart above the current price, so I would expect the rising tide to moderate. There are a few very bearish analysts who are targeting much lower prices on JOY, as well as declining earnings well into 2014. I not that bearish myself. It's very hard to predict much beyond this year, imo. So many different cross currents in the global economy! As I've stated before, I think it's perfectly natural for the revenue growth to take a breather after the tremendous run they've had over the past 4 years. I think the consensus toward JOY is very reasonable and if we get any indication that the mining industry will begin to pick up towards the latter half of 2013, JOY will stay strong, relative to the overall market. Having said the above, I have a 2013 year end target for JOY between $75 and $95 (if we continue the bull market this year) or between $45 and $55 if we get the bear that many believe will begin to roar in the first half. We're only $7 away from the low end of my range and it's not even half way through January!!