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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: llap who wrote (9914)	1/16/2013 12:50:44 AM
From: zman69	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41048

Those odds are for an increase by 3/31, but the ceiling is likely to be reached sooner than that, estimates are sometime between mid-Feb and early March, so a temporary default could happen and that Intrade contract would still pay out. In any case I suspect the process won't be smooth and easy. Even if the tea party nutjobs aren't as crazy as they appear and act rationally in regard to the debt ceiling, we are still arguing not about whether we will pursue an immediate austerity policy but just about how MUCH austerity. Stimulus and infrastructure investment, which is what we really ought to be pursuing now in order to get the US economy out of a Japan style liquidity trap, isn't even up for discussion unfortunately. So, that presents a headwind for the bulls.