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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekgk who wrote (10057)	12/3/1997 4:41:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

tek, I have to take some time out to re-think my strategy. If I followed my own advice and took some money off the table in mid Nov, I wouldn't be in this uneasy corner today where my positions are influencing my thinking. For what it's worth - To me the breadth is a main concern and it is telling me that the rally is not for real. Sure indexes are looking strong but the underlying shift is towards safety. Today NH/NL ratio on NYSE is about 11 to 3. Most of them are in utility, food and muni-fund stocks. Not at all impressive. Breadth on Nasdaq, on the other hand, is real bad. NH/NL is about 10 to 14. If you look at A/D figures it may tell you a similar story. The rally in the last 2 hours seems to have come from some panic short-covering (ala AOL) and some bargain hunting. I am trying to relate VIX to the NH/NL indicator and see what it tells me. I think your positions, if they are February and out expiration, are in a better shape. If I didn't load-up already, I would have started buying on Monday itself. Today would be another good day to start buying puts as well. I think the next move down should be pretty steep fall from here. IMHO. We haven't seen any warnings from big-players yet. BTW, I covered my LRCX and AVNT shorts today and rolled my LRCX puts to January. Closed CAT puts also. Same here. BWDIK? -Mohan

To: tekgk who wrote (10057)	12/3/1997 9:30:00 PM
From: Simon	Respond to of 18056

<<<I think that this rally has only a few days left >>> Lets call this the "Christmas BS rally". The mkt tried to go down today, but then we can't screw up Christmas and Christmas sales, so lets drive it back up somehow. Hey, if a few tech stocks get crucified, so B it.They ain't AT & T or BA, or IBM. EG: adpt, what the hell did they do to get shot in the Arse. I don't know but I covered a short sale at 41. I'm not even sure what they do or how to spell the name of the company. I look at some of the fund charts and it seems like most have a big portfolio of spx (spy?) which yo yo up and down same as the S & P. Well hell I guess U can't get fired if U mimic the S&P at the present.