just cleared from tray
From: J
Sent: Sunday, January 27, 2013 5:37 AM
Subject: Re: Miners vs. gold
in this script mises.org most people (defined as the 18% out of the 35% that stood up and be counted) hoped against the palpable despair.
in the aggregate hope triumphed each and every time the 'leadership' (1% less the 0.1% who knew what really was happening and went along anyway until when they had to decamp for england and caribbean) promised, cajoled, enticed, winked, convinced, threatened, acted, acted again, acted thrice more, until the crowd hoped themselves right up against the abyss of hopelessness, and then they, along with the 0.8% (0.1% exited earlier, and 0.1% got away in nick of scratching time) went over the edge.
if the script was true, and if we are playing to script, then we are given a chance to prepare, methodically deliberate, astutely act, and prepare some more.
we are blessed.
amen
From: H
Sent: Sunday, January 27, 2013 5:02 AM
Subject: Re: Miners vs. gold
We have to give the Fed credit for being an excellent expectations manager.
Of course the game can only be played because everybody wants it to be true.
There is a deep-seated psychological need they cater for; the idea that the 'potent
directors' sitting around their fine mahogany round-table in Washington actually
can plan the economy for us is something most market participants want to believe,
even if deep down they sense that there has to be a catch.
On Sat, Jan 26, 2013 at 8:32 PM, L wrote:
People are morons, especially American investors. Remember when they thought Ben wouldn’t ease in August of 2007 because they thought he was such a tough guy??? LOL they did the same stupid thing then and crashed the miners while gold shrugged its shoulders, and then a meltup ensued when they discovered how wrong they were.
oddly enough, Tom Fitzpatrick even made a comparison between the two periods for gold back on the 17th well before last week’s nonsense happened...
From: H
Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2013 1:28 PM
Subject: Re: Miners vs. gold
It is actually quite remarkable that even now, people completely misapprehend Bernanke. He really believes that he must save the economy from a second great depression (or a few lost decades a la Japan) by continuing to print even at a point when other central banks would long ago have stopped. In fact, he said so again only last week (I'm paraphrasing): "the biggest mistake the Fed could make would be to tighten too early"
On Sat, Jan 26, 2013 at 8:08 PM, L wrote:
Yep. The LAST thing that Ben wants is for the bonds to crash due to misconceptions about a hawkish Fed. I suspect they will go out of their way next week in the FOMC statement to make this clear to the duller mental knives in the drawer ;)
From: b
Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2013 1:00 PM
Subject: RE: Miners vs. gold
The Fed, per the daily SecLend OMO, went a bit wild on Friday to try and control the jump in Treasuries. Total accepted was over $16 billion ($10 & $12 billion the two prior days), compared to an average of about $7 billion per day for the last 30 days.
All time record high, $37B in late June 2011.
From: L
Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2013 11:19 AM
Subject: RE: Miners vs. gold
That’s a weekly ratio. On the daily ratio, the XAU/Gold ratio was lower on 1 day in 2008 at the sector’s crash low. So, there was 1 other day in history that the ratio was lower, but I guess the point is the same –VBG-. They’re pretty cheap here ;)
The more interesting thing is WHY people panicked and the miners became so cheap. Amazingly, people actually believe that the Fed is about to stop printing and tighten because the economy is doing so well. I’ve never seen such a mass delusion.
telegraph.co.uk
From: H
Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2013 8:59 AM
Subject: Re: Miners vs. gold
If you use the XAU for this exercise, you will notice that they are actually at a new all time record low versus the gold price - in fact, almost 50% lower than in 2001. They have in fact traded below the ratio low seen at the end of the gold bear market for the past 3 1/2 years, but obviously new extremes have been reached this week (the attached chart shows the inverse of the ratio, i.e., gold:XAU)
The XAU has 30 component stocks vs. the HUI's 17, so it provides a broader overview of the sector.
On Sat, Jan 26, 2013 at 3:49 AM, M wrote:
Gold mining stocks haven't been this cheap relative to the price of gold since 2001.
M
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