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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: penthouse mike who wrote (44762)	1/28/2013 12:47:28 PM
From: expiredoptions	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 221985

RE Mike: I was looking for a 25% profit on this countertrend put trade. Here is my management method: If an option rises 20% after filling, I move my stop to breakeven. If an option tanks immediately after filling, I will buy it again -25% below the first buy. Let's look at today's countertrend trade: The SPY Feb151 puts opened at 1.83 (filled) and went straight up to 2.25 (+23%). My profit goal was 2.29 (+25%) so it didn't make it. Because the options went straight up +20%, my stop is now breakeven. Here's what would have happened if the options had tanked immediately: Buy 1: 1.83 Buy 1 Sell Limit: 2.29 (+25%) but if tanks immediately then Buy 2: 1.35 (B1 -25%) Sell Limit: 1.90 (+40%) Stop: 1.20 So I am sitting here on these puts with a sell limit of 2.29 (+25%) or a Stop of 1.83 (breakeven). On the trending direction SPY Feb149 calls bought at 1.95 (system 2), My sell limit is 2.45 (+25%). There hasn't been a 20% rise on these calls after filling but if that occurs my stop goes to breakeven, Otherwise the plan is: Buy 2: 1.45 Sell Limit: 2.03 (+40%) Stop: 1.30 Jeff

To: penthouse mike who wrote (44762)	1/29/2013 9:12:12 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 221985

Futures are lower today, but I don't know if we could see it get back down below the 1476.50 VP by Feb 6th... it could bounce off 1475ish and then rally again... and even if we do get a sell signal, the next buy signal could trigger another huge rally, the FED isn't giving up their QE money pumping into these markets... I'm beginning to suspect this pull back could be brief and shallow... but, we'll see... I'm not going to jump the gun, I'll just hold my light short and see how this market plays out... GZ