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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (7759)	12/3/1997 5:33:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

CR >>. There is a tendency to play options, just to get some action going. Very dangerous!<< yes, option writers are not dummies they are among the most sophisticated players in the street. >>Earlier, I suggested a "synthetic short" position using options IF AND ONLY IF there are no shares available to short (like AMZN).<< Yes I liked this idea, the options involved as you said are the longest term ones you can find, and as you said: "Shorting the real thing is a better strategy." Pancho

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (7759)	12/3/1997 11:33:00 PM
From: Michael	Respond to of 9285

NEVER PLAY OPTIONS! 100 % right , Bill. I also think it is very risky to short stocks like DELL. Dell trades at a high p/e because it is damn good at selling computers and making money. NEVER BET AGAINST A WINNER! your friend, Michael

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (7759)	12/4/1997 2:16:00 AM
From: hasbeen101	Respond to of 9285

Earlier, I suggested a "synthetic short" position using options IF AND ONLY IF there are no shares available to short (like AMZN) Bil, the synthetic short is nice in two ways. Firstly, as you say it can get around the problem where you can't borrow shares to short. Secondly, depending on how much margin your broker requires, it doesn't just give you a synthetic short, but a synthetic LEVERAGED short (i.e. synthetic futures). Obviously this is a double-edged sword, but if you're making superior bets the leverage is an added attraction.