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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (50738)2/1/2013 12:12:57 AM
From: Paul Senior2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78464
 
LMT. Once I enter the defense sector, I don't see where LMT has any better prospects than the other primes. If somebody's looking to buy LMT, it's not obvious to me that LMT company or stock is any better than GD, RTN, NOC. I'd almost rather go with BA where headlines have described grounding of its new planes. Maybe BA stock might rise when (if) the battery issued is fixed.

I don't trust the continuation of the dividend for any of these defense stocks. Jmo. I've seen too many such companies in the past lose contracts, lay off people, reduce and restructure.



To: E_K_S who wrote (50738)2/1/2013 1:13:46 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78464
 
I don't think that LMT is a short at this point. The selloff is probably overdone. I don't like the pension issues. this is what they are saying in their latest 10q:

Our postretirement benefit plans are measured annually at year-end and are largely dependent upon several key economic assumptions. If we assume a discount rate at the end of 2012 is 4.0%, a 75 basis points decrease from 2011, actual investment returns for 2012 are 8.0%, pension funding is comparable to 2012, and all other assumptions are held constant, we expect the amount of the qualified defined benefit pension plan obligation we record at the end of 2012 to increase materially, resulting in a non-cash, after-tax decrease in our stockholders’ equity of approximately $3.0 billion at the end of 2012. Such a decrease could result in us reporting a stockholders’ deficit at year-end. We do not anticipate that this would affect our ability to comply with our debt covenants nor hinder our ability to pay dividends. With these assumptions, we expect our 2013 non-cash FAS/CAS pension expense adjustment would be approximately $700 million.

I don't care if they think it does not matter, if they have negative stockholder equity. I do not like it one little bit. I might buy some, if this sell down further, but it would probably be for a trade.

Speaking of defense, there has been a lot of talk in NPR about cyber warfare and a major effort to boost the US capability in this field, including offensive capabilities. This makes a lot of sense to me. China is apparently very aggressive there (see the cyber attack on the NY Times, that was correlated to their article about a corruptive government official). The US has the best software capability but also the most too loose here, so they need to be the top dog in Cyber warfare. It sounds like big spending is going to happen in this area and I'd love to hear some recommendations. The big guys like LMT and XLS will certainly be involved (they have already operations, plus the infrastructure to run highly classified projects but there is probably a lot of space for up and coming companies too. Any ideas would be welcome.