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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7766)	12/3/1997 8:12:00 PM
From: Craig Richards	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

New short idea - Metricom (MCOM) Metricom makes the Ricochet internet access system. This allows wireless internet access at speeds around 28K (similar to dial-up modems). However, this is only available in a few cities (San Fran, DC and Seattle). I think this is exciting for 2 reasons - it allows internet access without an added phone line, plus it allows access while away from home. Even though this is wireless, it does not allow access from a car, you must be stationary to use this service. Although this is an exciting potential, I think that by the time they roll out their service that cable modems will serve a lot of their target market, which will take away those users interested in saving charges for a 2nd phone line. Also, some of the limitations of Ricochet service will mean that satellite wireless will be more attractive for many customers. (Because you will be able to access the internet from anywhere with satellite access, not just in the limited Ricochet service areas.) Their market cap is $167 million, but they only had $3.1 million in revenues in the most recent quarter (9/30) with a loss of $12.8 million. It will take a lot of capital to roll out Ricochet nationwide, plus it will take a lot of time to do it, too. By the time they have nationwide service, I think cable and satellite access will offer better service for most users than what Ricochet can offer. In the mean time, they're losing lots of money. Paul Allen (co-founder of Microsoft) recently made a large investment in MCOM, causing the price to go up quite a bit. Lots of good information on the company can be found on the SI thread at Subject 7737 Craig

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7766)	12/3/1997 9:13:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9285

Pancho, RE: ACLY. Listened to the conference call replay 800 839-1382. Interesting call ... as usual, my interpretation is different than the Wainwright analyst! The reason ACLY had such a "good" quarter ($1.6M is good? with a market cap of $172M?) is that ACLY received a one time "paid up license" from FORD to use their tool. Although there will be consulting work with FORD, it is the license fee that is high margin. Also, ACLY has a substantial tax loss carryforward that is just about used up - so the after tax profit is overstated. So far there is no evidence of after Y2K business (Mr. Geimer admitted this during Q&A) - so the Company needs to generate unbelievable profits in the next two years to justify their market cap. There were several hilarious comments from Mr. Geimer during the conference call. As an example, when asked if costs would increase as fast as revenues, Geimer mumbled (and repeated) something about renting more space for $9.50 per foot - as if anyone cares! For you DDIM fans: check out the quarterly report from ACLY: biz.yahoo.com ACLY provides almost NO useful information. Maybe thestreet.com article will drive up the price tomorrow - an excellent opportunity to short more. Regards, Bill