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Strategies & Market Trends : Candlestick Charting--The unknown indicator -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ted birnbaum who wrote (856)	12/3/1997 11:19:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1589

Ted: CTXS does look ripe to dive from a "no one escapes the carnage" standpoint, but some how it has held up amazingly well. I think I personally would only jump on it as a short if and when software in general dives, especially if MSFT takes a dip. It just has been too resilient so far. In that case it would get dragged down with the group (which seems to be the general mode of the market right now--group assaults) and could net you 20 points to the downside. I still like DELL as a short (although the high short interest has kept me away so far), and tried to short JBIL today but it gapped down. MTW might net 5 short points with a 2-2.5 point risk; MANU might have 7 or 8 short points in it with a tight stop a couple points above todays close (which is a decent risk/reward). Most of the choice short candidates peaked after last Friday's close and are now too far extended to the downside to jump aboard (but they still have room to drop (I hope) if you're already aboard. A couple general observations: Lots of wedges and ascending triangles forming (over the past 4-5 weeks), as well as many head-and-shoulder wanna-bee's over the past 5 months. The preponderance of wedges seem to be saying the nervousness is stabilizing for now. The cycles within the wedges seem to be loosely tracking industry groups (the "group assault" I mentioned earlier), and if this continues, there should be some nice short opportunities in 6-10 trading days for the wedges that haven't tightened up too much. But, because of all the wedges, the market may be saying that we're approaching a general consolidation level (at least for the stocks with wedges). I'm looking more at the ones that are keeping roughly the same swings as they cycle up and down, since these haven't decided to close in on stability yet. I'm gonna keep a watchful eye on CTXS though because it really has some room to tumble with little upside risk. dh

To: ted birnbaum who wrote (856)	12/4/1997 8:53:00 PM
From: ftth	Respond to of 1589

HEY Ted, if CTXS was shortable yesterday, it's even more so today (although the same arguments still hold). Might be a good one to feed into piece by piece as you watch it move, then cover all at once. With a buy stop at 81 1/8 you don't risk much (well, unless it gaps--but gaps up are few and far between these days), and if it can hit 81 1/8 with all the trouble its had piercing 80 even intraday, it's probably not a good short at the moment anyway. Boy, I've even got my self tempted. Hmmmmmm. I'm still thinking it wont tank without some reason--the group heads south, news, alien invasion, war, Cabletron buys them out.... dh