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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (14878)	12/3/1997 10:00:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Respond to of 69896

Yeah! but they still have margin ;-)

To: j g cordes who wrote (14878)	12/3/1997 11:27:00 PM
From: paulj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69896

Lots of credit lines have been set up to deal with daily cash requirements supporting a lower cash level to make keeping up with an index easier. Lots more money in index funds too. Somethin' else to ponder ..

To: j g cordes who wrote (14878)	12/4/1997 1:31:00 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69896

Jim, the mutual fund cash level chart does tend to make one pause and think. But ongoing structural changes in the fund industry may invalidate the trend comparison because: a) an increasing proportion of fund money is in index funds that tend to hold very low cash levels; and b) many now routinely switch back and forth between money market and index funds in retirement accounts, resulting in a ready pool of cash that may not be accounted for on the chart. It would be nice to see a chart showing all possible sources of money flowing in and out of stocks. Perhaps Lazlo Biryni has a handle on this. Greg

To: j g cordes who wrote (14878)	12/4/1997 4:30:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69896

Jim, WOW ,at first glance that is looks like one scary graph. What it does not take into consideration though is that a lot of money has gone into the bonds. We had a few pre-announcements of bad earnings so far. It indicates the certain sectors of the economy may be stalling. If so lower interest rates may be ahead or at least the expectation/perception of lower interest rates which is just as good in the short term. You mentioned yourself that a drop below 5.9 percent may indicate an overbought condition on the bonds, if so the money may go back into cash and selected stocks. Today's close on the NAZ indicates people are still buying the dips right now so a certain amount of bullishness remains. I believe inflows in to mutual funds are traditionally weak in December/January as people tend to spend too much on the Christmas season. So there will be no help on that front in the short term. The psychology seems very fragile here. My general perception from reading some of the threads is that a lot of people have sufferred some very big loses the last 2 months despite the fact that the DOW had regained most of their losses. Some people may have even been removed from the game as a result of their losses. I personally am quite cautious right now despite the strong look of the DJUA, DJTA, and the DOW30 and will be selling some of my more speculative stocks into any rallies as many of them are still in down trends. It really is a traders market. As a result I am trying to adapt to the new set of rules.