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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (10569)	12/3/1997 10:20:00 PM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12298

Don - <<From the stand point of pure speculation, let's suppose that next Q they beat estimates by .02>> Huh!?!?! Have you seen today's H&Q update on expected WDC earnings for 98? WDC has gone from $3.38 to $2.18 to $1.96 to $1.64 to $0.30(H&Q and others to follow) in the last MONTH. That's four weeks, two "unexpected pressure" warnings and $3 worth of earnings pissed away. That's a 90+% change in estimates for 98 in LESS than a month. When WDC guided ANALysts to $3.38 after the SepQ97 CC they really expected that they would make those #s. They've missed now, the market is changing - they are talking to outsiders... <<The estimate for this quarter is over 50% less than actual results for last quarter>>Yeh, WDC will have gone from $0.67 to a big fat DONUT in one quarter. To a LOSS in the MarQ. During this whole time all I heard was "RDRT is doing a fine job with MR", "very pleased with MR DD demand", "ramping down older products", "faster transition to MR" and on and on. Meanwhile, APM expectations have gone from $2.58 to $2.36 primarily because nobody covers that stock because Crisman won't talk to them. Buddy, you are a strange bird. Be careful. todd BTW, think about this "MR HGAs are plentiful, the next focus is MR HSAs" - Haggerty COMDEX 97. First APM must walk, then they can run. They're not just going to start spitting out 2.1MR HSAs...

To: Don Earl who wrote (10569)	12/4/1997 9:09:00 AM
From: Jonathan Bird	Respond to of 12298

The full explaination is beyond the scope and bandwidth of the thread and probably isn't something I would care to advertise anyway. Hey that sounds mysterious. Your not one of those ouiji board types are you? just teasing. So correct me if im misunderstanding you please. But it sounds as though what your saying is that a negative earnings suprise is already built in to the stock and so can't do much damage, and hence not much risk. But if on the off chance they do better then is expected you will ride the insuing panic buying upwards. And through your analysis the risk reward ratio justifies your long position. However, you do admit that very little is known about what to expect. So is this move in fact a little bit heavier wheighted to the gamble side rather then the investment side? honestly? And if you strategy relies upon this earnings suprise, then why not just wait and place you bet right before earnings are released? Or perhaps after a clear reversal? Take a quick look at todays 1 minute chart and a glance at the 10 day %K line on a stochastic chart. Is this really that bad a point to average down to $16.44? To my eye, wednesdays one minute chart looks a bit stronger then Tuesdays in that we didn't close at the absolute low. However both of them are mini decending triangles. The only thing significant about support 15 is that it is a whole number right below 16. Other then that, it technically offers no support. The %K line is indeed in oversold teritory, however the %D line is clearly diverging and so doesn't signal a buy to me. All the technical indicators I use are still bearish. 16.44 is not a bad place to be in terms of your paper losses are small. And I think you may have a chance to get out as high as 16.5 before we head lower. How much farther before earnings will APM have to drop before you get second thoughts? Or will you simply raise the stakes again? Compared to you, I have so little riding on APM that I would feel selfish not to sincerly wich you well. The amount of money im playing with only qualifies this as a hobby for me. And if you are right I am going to start following you around SI to learn what you are doing. However if you are wrong all I can do is engrave your name on the APM Memorial Wall. Occasionally people may come by and make rubbings of your name. Jon Bird