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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gizwick who wrote (50858)	2/12/2013 10:41:21 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78751

Hi gizwick - Re: LNEGY Check the thread for earlier posts. The company is winning NG engineering & design contracts all over the world. CNX & NOBLE just awarded them their business worth hundreds of million. If you look through the link I posted for their engineering division and dig down to awarded new contracts, just look at all their recent wins, $ amounts and where they are located. Much more impressive to me than what CBI was doing three years ago. CBI was more than a double from that point three years ago. I expect NG infrastructure engineering builds to grow high single digits especially in the U.S. (maybe more). China has huge pollution problems from burning coal and needs to migrate to NG. Japan and Germany will no longer use nuclear to generate electricity and must switch to NG. All will require NG processing facilities to produce LNG. It's my bet that LNGE will get their share (if not more) of these contracts. They are priced a bit high when you look at their PE but you have to factor in their very profitable gas delivery business that generate high margins (and typically sell at a much higher PE). Therefore, one can make the argument that their Engineering business is cheap when compared to CBI and/or FLR. You are buying the bundled business when you buy LNEGY. The other plus is when LNEGY wins an engineering design, there is a lot of future service contract work that also works into their distribution & processing side. So one business feeds the other. My initial position is small but I would like to build a core amount of shares at lower prices if/when it presents it'self. So on any 10% correction, I will be happy to add more shares. That's my take from my due diligence over the last few weeks. I may have over looked some things and could be wrong about my conclusions (and I have many times to different degrees) but for me, this looks like a good CAGR play at a reasonable price. Their engineering division is the gem and when compared to CBI's value, it could be seen as undervalued. EKS

To: gizwick who wrote (50858)	7/3/2013 2:16:42 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78751

Linde Aktiengesellschaft (LNEGY) - Closed out position @ 18.69/share started 2/2013 at an avg cost of $17.57/share CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX) - New 52wk low and looking to add shares. BV reported @ $17.38/share I continue to like the company but believe I can re-enter the position at a lower price if/when Europe starts growing again. For now, Europe is struggling and LNEGY still has a lot of exposure in this region. I did book a gain of 6% in 4 months. The company does not present any significant value at it's current price (it is fairly valued) but does have some very nice long term projects in the works. Specifically they are the lead contractor to build out the NG infrastructure for the CNX & Noble Oil Services $5B expansion project. It's a five year deal so they are barely into year 1. This German company also has a big service area in Japan for providing compressed gases and through their contracting division should land new contracts to build out Japan's growing NG infrastructure. They will not only do the one time construction project(s) but also get the follow on service business. The negative is LNEGY still has some big exposure in Europe (as well as in the Middle East) which could impact future sales growth. Therefore, on any retracement below $17.50/share could provide a good entry point especially as their U.S. NG infrastructure contract w/ Noble will be underway. As a footnote, CNX hit a multi year low and it is this one I really want to own. I will add to my shares on further weakness. This NG JV w/ Noble Oil is a big deal and once completed should generate significant FCF. I want to get my positions established before they start to report their revenues from this project. It should happen in 12-18 months so there is plenty of time to nibble at shares. For a 36 month buy and hold proposition, both these companies CNX & LNEGY could be good growers (perhaps a double in price) and nice dividend payers since cash flows will growing YoY. For me, it's a good time in the cycle to begin to nibble at shares if/when the proper entry price presents it's self. EKS