To: dalroi who wrote (98685 ) 2/22/2013 9:54:02 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 218107 The economic slowdown that has shaken the eurozone’s periphery will continue to bleed into the currency bloc’s core this year, with France and Germany barely growing, according to highly anticipated forecasts published on Friday by the European Commission.EU forecasts paint grim economic pictur e By Peter Spiegel in Brussels The economic slowdown that has shaken the eurozone’s periphery will continue to bleed into the currency bloc’s core this year, with France and Germany barely growing, according to highly anticipated forecasts published on Friday by the European Commission. The worsening economic picture – where France’s gross domestic product is expected to grow just 0.1 per cent and Germany’s by 0.5 per cent in 2013, both 30 basis point downgrades from three months ago – will see the eurozone as a whole shrink 0.3 per cent this year. The commission had predicted growth of 0.1 per cent in November. The disappointing outlook curbed the euro’s gains on Friday, while more optimistic data from Germany, where the Ifo institute report showed business confidence in Europe’s largest economy had risen to a 10-month high, sent Bund yields higher.“The weakness of economic activity towards the end of 2012 implies a low starting point for the current year,” Olli Rehn , the EU’s economic affairs commissioner, said in a statement. “The current situation can be summarised like this: we have disappointing hard data from the end of last year, some more encouraging soft data in the recent past and growing investor confidence in the future.” The deepening recession will hit particularly hard in countries that have required EU financial assistance, particularly Greece, Spain and Portugal, which are expected to suffer deeper recessions this year and barely return to growth next year, according to the new forecasts. After shrinking 7.1 per cent in 2011 and 6.4 per cent last year, Greece is expected to see its sixth year of economic contraction in 2013, suffering a 4.4 per cent cut in economic activity – another downward adjustment from the 4.2 per cent predicted in November. Greek unemployment is expected to hit 27 per cent this year, up from 24.7 per cent in 2012, while Spain’s jobless rate will grow to 26.9 per cent. Portugal, where broad-based political support for the austerity measures accompanying its €78bn bailout has begun to fracture, will see unemployment peak at 17.3 per cent this year, according to the forecasts. The bleak picture threatens to upend eurozone efforts to bring down debt levels across the region. Eurozone government debt is expected to hit 95.1 per cent of GDP this year, the highest levels since the creation of the single currency. It will also make it difficult for several eurozone governments to hit EU-mandated deficit targets. France, which has become the subject of particular concern, is expected to post a deficit this year of 3.7 per cent of GDP, a significant miss of its 3 per cent target and a forecast that could lead Brussels to force the anti-austerity government of President François Hollande to impose new cuts in order to hit the target. We have disappointing hard data from the end of last year, some more encouraging soft data in the recent past and growing investor confidence in the future- Olli Rehn, EU economic affairs commissioner Mr Rehn must now decide whether France’s worse than expected deficit figures were due to a lack of action by the French government or because of an unexpected economic shock. If he decides that it was due to factors beyond Paris’s control, he could postpone the deadline by a year, especially if he determines Mr Hollande has done enough to reform the French economy to foster growth in the future. Mr Rehn granted Spain a similar extension last year, but senior European Central Bank officials have cautioned against giving Paris a pass. The commission’s 143-page winter economic forecast gives some signals Mr Rehn is preparing to give France a reprieve. It states that new tax measures are expected to bring in additional revenues amounting to 1.5 per cent of GDP and explicitly states that much of the missed target is due to the economic downturn. “GDP growth projected well below potential will negatively affect the headline deficit,” the report states, adding that Mr Hollande has reduced France’s structural deficit – a more subjective measure of the impact reforms will have in the long term – by 1.25 per cent, above a 1 per cent target set by Brussels. Although Spain has been already given a waiver, the new data reveal just how difficult the road ahead is for Madrid to hit even the new, more lenient targets. Spain was supposed to lower its deficit to 5.3 per cent of GDP last year, but instead came in with nearly double that: 10.2 per cent, by far the highest in the EU. This year, Spain’s deficit is projected to hit 6.7 per cent, well off the 3 per cent goal it was supposed to achieve. Without any additional austerity measures, Madrid’s deficit it projected to balloon again to 7.2 per cent in 2014, the forecast predicts.