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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Smith who wrote (41412)	12/4/1997 1:48:00 AM
From: zsteve	Respond to of 186894

here is one about short term of tech stocks: Dow Jones Newswires -- December 3, 1997 Earnings Warnings In Air, So Techs To Remain Volatile By CHRISTOPHER GRIMES Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Technology investors, who have had their mettle tested since mid-October, should brace for further volatility now that the season for earnings shortfall announcements is in full swing. Portfolio managers and analysts said there is little good news that can offset the market-shaking warnings from Altera Corp. (ALTR), Cabletron Systems Inc. (CS), Western Digital Corp. (WDC) and 3Com Corp. (COMS) over the past two days. More bad news could come this week, followed by a tapering off until the end of the month, said Jamie Townsend, chairman and chief portfolio strategist at SoundView Financial Group Inc. So he and other strategists aren't looking for the waters to begin calming until January. "I've been looking for the preannouncement season to be a catalyst to create some of the bottoming out that the group needs to achieve in order to have a meaningful runup in early 1998," Townsend said, adding that it doesn't look like that bottom has been reached yet. Other strategists agreed, saying that meaningful indicators of the sector's strength won't come until after the reporting season in January. Only then will it become clear how much of an impact the turmoil in Asia is having on technology companies. "It's reasonable to expect that (the sector will) bounce back somewhat once we get a sense of how much impact Southeast Asia will have on earnings," said Lary Aasheim, managing director of Corestates Investment Advisers. "Once that becomes more visible and clear we will have something to go on." Since early October, before Intel Corp. (INTC) missed third-quarter estimates and the Asian markets went haywire, technology stocks have been battered. And chip stocks have received the worst treatment. On Oct. 13, a day before Intel's earnings report, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Sector Index was at 389.88. Wednesday, the index was in the range of 285, compared with an all-time high of 405.48 set Aug. 21. To some analysts, this has been a little overdone. "The worst-case situations are built into the stocks across the board, and some actually have end-of-the world scenarios built into them," said Ashok Kumar, a semiconductor analyst with Lowenbaum & Co. "Some of this is overdone, but no meaningful money flow will come into these stocks until the beginning of the year." To Kumar, the biggest injustices have occurred with stocks like VLSI Technology Inc. (VLSI). VLSI's stock price has fallen from its 52-week high of 38 11/16 on Sept. 23 to its recent level of 20; the stock dropped almost 14% Tuesday. Kumar said he thinks the downturn is near the bottom. But he said a recovery is going to be U-shaped, not V-shaped. Hank Herman, the chief investment officer of Waddell & Reed, calls the volatility in technology stocks a cyclical downturn, adding that he thinks it's foolish to try to predict when it will end. The downturn is being driven by too much capacity in semiconductors and a "logjam" in telecommunications, Herman said. "I think what's happening is money wants to say in tech, but it's gravitating to less volatile areas, like software and services," Herman said. He said investors have looked to companies like International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) as safe havens. Herman and Kumar agreed that another technology bellwether hasn't been used for cover, however: Intel. Kumar said Intel looks "fuzzy" in terms of earnings growth next year due to the popularity of sub-$1,000 PCs. But he still likes the company long-term. Analysts who follow Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ) and Dell Computer Corp. (DELL) tend to insist that the sky isn't falling with technology stocks, even though these companies' shares have been hurt lately. "A lot of the companies I've been talking to are still expecting good fourth quarters," said Louis Mazzucchelli, an analyst at Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co. "Consumers are getting smarter about things, but they haven't stopped buying computers."

To: Joey Smith who wrote (41412)	12/4/1997 6:28:00 AM
From: Kealoha	Respond to of 186894

Joey: can you see the AMD advertisement for their German fab plant workers??? from todays WSJ: "....Close observers of the escapist Ballermann craze say Germans have a lot to escape from. It's not just that winter is looming. More than 11% of the country's labor force -- 4.5 million people -- is unemployed. Investment and jobs are continuing to decline, as tax rates remain among the highest in Europe. Many Germans "just want to party and forget about it all for a while. And they want that Majorca feeling," says Juergen Kalwey, owner of VTV Promotions, which organizes Majorca-theme parties across the country."