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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (30210)12/4/1997 8:15:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
 
By "feel" I don't mean gut feel. Just an awareness or educated guess about the direction and why, for example, it suddenly reversed or suddenly accelerated.

Not that intuitive feel is a bad thing, it's just that if you cannot quantify why you feel that such and such a move is going on you (me, anyone) will usually hesitate and perhaps miss the opportunity.

Happened to me Monday, for example. I think it was the Dec 460 calls. one minute they were near 14...10 minutes later below 11. I knew I wanted 'em...but the sharp move down surprised me. I had not paid attention so I still don't know why and the suckers closed at 15.75, I think.

I hesitated and missed them because although I intuitively knew I wanted to own them I could not quantify why...so I joined the 'woulda coulda shoulda' crowd.



To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (30210)12/4/1997 10:05:00 AM
From: Tom Trader  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
 
Good morning K Rose

>>I have problems with mechanical systems.

Most traders do--after all it takes the fun out of trading, it does not do a whole lot for the ego when one says that one follows a mechanical signal and it is very difficult to follow day in and day out especially after several losing trades.

But if it makes money that is what should matter, right??

>>Not that I don't think they work or I think that you should not use them. I have problems in that my mentality wants to look at a number of factors that just cant be factored in easily and quantitatively ....including my crystal ball<<

I know of a couple of very good intuitive/non-mechanical traders but their secret seems to be that they are able to separate their intuitive/non-mechanical instincts from their emotional feelings and so their judgement does not get clouded by any emotional roller coaster. But that is very very hard to so and unless one is able to do so, one will inevitably be swayed by emotions.

But in the ultimate analysis one has to be comfortable with a trading style--mechanical vs non-mechanical, position vs day trading-- and often this is something that evolves. Kevin, for example, seems to have crossed the bridge to mechanical trading a lot easier than I did. The real test for any mechanical system trader is the ability to stay with the system after several consecutive losers--after all it is easy to follow signals if one keeps having profitable trades.