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Gold/Mining/Energy : MP Systems Corp. (formerly Molycorp) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: feedmindanaochildren who wrote (22)	2/25/2013 9:54:25 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 111

I don't see any trades for $6 a share in the last two months... It traded there back in November... then almost doubled... all before the really bad news even started coming to the market, driving it back down... So, if the trade done was back in Nov, or if they did a financing for $6 a share recently... I'd think it a fairly safe bet, in this market, to expect you'll probably get the opportunity to buy shares at or below that price point, again... probably really soon ? Daily chart and weekly are both reverse pinchers... I'm not going to ignore that... more as the daily chart was a pincher from August to December, and it moved LOWER out of the pinch... Distribution keeps painting more red, and the OBV is stubbornly high on the daily chart.... %R and OBV on the weekly are dropping through the bands, now... I'd noted that as an issue to watch in a prior post... and now its time to watch it closely for "the dreaded c word" with a drop as the cross occurs... Whatever the insider buying has been recently... the masked short positions look like they more than compensate for any shares that have been bought... which is fully consistent with insiders buying shares, shorting against them (which are shorts that don't have to be reported), and waiting for taking profits on their shorts. I'd look for evidence of major short covering occurring in the daily trade before I think you'll expect to see the performance being skewed positively by that insider buying... Triple whammy in the stock having issue specific problems, REE being whacked, and the markets in commodities stocks generally "not being supportive"... all of which means MCP probably isn't driving its own bus now, at least for the next week or two... while the market does whatever it does to MCP. Probable that the trends will be driven as much or more by good days or bad days in the market... with bad days likely being really bad for MCP... For bottom fishers... you do need to wait for the bait to hit bottom... and then let it sit there and stink... An odd compliment, in context, but, MCP looks like fresh fish, even it is being cut up to look like fresh cut bait. I don't have a dog in the hunt at MCP... but, my guess is you'll see the reverse pinch on the weekly be resolved and become a "positive pinch" before you see an unambiguous bottom. made here... and you DO see that beginning to happen on the daily chart, only in the last three days of trading. When that trend expands and moves to the weekly charts... ? Then, you'll be getting closer... The top bolly is rolling over and pointing lower, but with the lower bolly angling down more, now to near 45 degrees, its not pointing into a bolly pinch... it just means that by trading sideways it has MCP moving rapidly toward the center of the bands, because the bands are moving lower, fast... The effect is more dramatic on the 4 year weekly. I don't have any problem thinking MCP might give you a nice bounce off a well formed bottom at some point... and that point might even be "soon"... but that's not what I'm seeing proofs of now in chart sporting a big reverse pinch when... there may be other shoes to drop... and betting on the bounce now might well become a game of "catch a falling knife" later in the week... next week... I'd use the time, now, to try to get a handle on the limits in risk that the debt downgrade might present... given the pairing of the downgrade and the ongoing operational difficulties. Whatever the BV per share is now, a bit of high cost borrowing of money that's necessary to get the business back on plan... could end up transferring a lot of that value to the last lender willing to step up and take the risk... I'd tend to trust my view of the fundamentals in parsing that risk, more than the charts... for now. But, I've not done the work to have anything close to a proper bead on that risk... Without that, I'm going to be more suspicious of the chart, not less ? MCP may well need to see a bottom being put in on the REE stocks generally, and commodity stocks generally, in order to provide the market support required for funding whatever they're going to need to fund... to fix it. I'm an optimist that we might see that broader market bottom in resource stocks forming... "soon"... maybe by the end of March... maybe not until mid summer... but, that's still "soon" in my view of the markets. I don't think I'd be in a hurry to take a position here... without seeing that precursor condition being met, or without seeing the financing risks being eliminated by some other method, somehow, on a forward basis ? Purely guessing... maybe $3 will give it a nice positive pinch... and a reason to think about taking the risk... ?