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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert O who wrote (12714)	2/27/2013 11:39:10 AM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT: Don't feel too bad Robert. The trade could have gone the other way. There certainly was some luck involved in the trade. There is with every trade but I try to stack the odds in my favor. That said according to the latest statistics from this last quarter slightly over 61% of the reporting companies beat estimates. KLIC clearly did not do that. Imagine how much smarter you would have looked than me if KLIC had reported great earnings. But I do try to trade with both technicals, sentiment, and market breadth working in my favor. Overbought is overbought. Oversold is oversold. I like to swing trade, rather than day trade, so I am very happy with this trade. I sold short while the stock was overbought and most people would have thought heading even higher. Now I have covered when many would make the argument that it could sell off further. I might even short again if we get enough of a bounce but that next trade would be much more risky. Some information on how the quarter played out. Bottom line shorting stocks is dangerous. bespokeinvest.com Earnings Season Ends with a Thud Friday, February 22, 2013 at 11:01AM Earnings season came to an end ths week with Wal-Mart's (WMT) report yesterday morning. Not only did the season end on a down note regarding the market, but the underlying earnings numbers fell hard this week as well. As shown below, the final reading for the percentage of US companies that beat Q4 earnings estimates was 61.4%. This is still a solid number compared to recent quarters, but it actually fell 2.2 percentage points this week. Of the 252 companies that reported this week, only 48% beat earnings estimates, causing the overall beat rate to drop from 63.6% down to 61.4%. While it hasn't been mentioned, maybe weak earnings has been a key reason for the market's drop this week. The revenue beat rate ended at 62.7% for the fourth quarter reporting period. As shown below, this is much better than what was seen in the prior two quarters, and its the exact same beat rate that was seen during the Q1 2012 reporting period. Just like the earnings beat rate, the revenue beat rate also fell this week, dropping 1.3 percentage points from a reading of 64% last Friday. If you're looking for a more detailed analysis of the fourth quarter earnings season, we'll have multiple pages on it in our Week in Review newsletter out later today. Click here to sign up to receive today's newsletter.