Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2634)	12/4/1997 10:22:00 AM
From: Wink	Respond to of 78654

I have a real dog, that may do something CLPZF. I own this stock but am looking to get out if nothing happens within the next 1/4.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2634)	12/4/1997 10:42:00 AM
From: Stewart Whitman	Respond to of 78654

How about De Beers (NASDAQ:DBRSY) - South African Diamond monopoly? They are selling very close to or below book value (I believe). Aside from the normal foreign investment problems (currency, politics, etc.), there are two concerns. The first concern is Southeast Asia. Japan and other Southeast Asia are large consumers of industrial diamonds used for manufacturing. Also, Japan is also a large consumer of diamonds used in jewelry. This problem is clearly temporary. The second concern is that "cracks" are showing up in their control over their monopoly. Recently, diamonds from Russia have been sold on the open market (not through their marketing organization, called the CSO) and some Australian mines have elected to sell their directly. There has also been a big discovery of diamonds found in northern Canada - it has been estimated that this source could provide upto 20% of the worlds diamonds in 2002. How these diamonds will be sold remains to be decided. However, it's pretty clear that a price war won't benefit anyone - think of the attraction of a $100 wedding ring. So, its unlikely that selling prices will dramatically change in any event. And the CSO has been challenged before. Unique position. Track record. Reasonable dividend. Brand name. I'd really like a second opinion. For information, try starting at: edata.co.za Stew

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2634)	12/4/1997 1:08:00 PM
From: Scott Mc	Respond to of 78654

Paul, Chk out Noranda, trades in TSE under NOR, believe its listed in states as well, They are going to break into 3 parts (Mining,O&G and Pulp&Paper) to surface value although the major part is the mining.. Blue chip company paying a dividend of approx 4%. Scott(PS: I own some as well as Edper which holds a large pos in Noranda) Re Phil Fisher, I've read him and can learn alot from him and his son Ken Fisher "Super Stocks"(mentioned here manytimes in the past). His grandson "dont recall his name" has recently published a book geared to younger investors.. Dont know of any other Published Families like this. Scott I like many books, one which I found a wonderful read was Investment Biker by Jim Rodgers (On CNBC alot as well as Soros's old sidekick) quite an adventure as well as some investment gems..

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2634)	12/4/1997 1:52:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Respond to of 78654

Paul, It's gold mining, but selling way below value - VOY.TO or VOYRF. I owned earlier but luckily sold before market and $CAN fell. When I saw your post decided to look again and I put in order for small position. Selling at $2.23CAN or $1.57US, has about $1CAN cash/share, have contracts to deliver thru '99 at over $400 /oz. One of their mining engineers is a friend and I've have toured their Castle Mountain Mine with him. He has been saying the earnings potential over the next few years is big due to recent mines opened and the stock is really undervalued. Can't get ahold of him now as he's at a SA mine. It's worth looking at, Ron

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2634)	12/4/1997 3:26:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78654

Paul & Mike, What's one to think about APM and CREAF? Both have really been hit, both being downgraded, yet I see very little different about them except the stock is selling 35% cheaper than a month ago. I keep looking at them thinking there might be a good buy but haven't gotten in because they just keep falling. Is there actually something wrong with the companies or are they getting hammered by the herd for the wrong reasons? Ron JWC has been dipping below 12 and is a very good buy there. I'm out now, but have an order in. They'll report a large earnings increase the December Q.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2634)	12/4/1997 10:17:00 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78654

I didn't get onto the web until now, so I just now read your post from this morning. I have done some thinking about gold and about mining companies and about owning one or the other...... The first thing I would say is that I think the market's approach to gold is shifting. The old paradigm was that gold provided asset security in uncertain political/economic times. Central banks used gold reserves to bolster confidence in their currencies. Gold also provided one with a sign of affluence when used in jewelery and coins, etc. I don't think that paradigm is still completely intact. I think the globalization of the financial sectors has resulted in a standardization that is beginning to exert it's own pressure toward a feeling of security.....for example, when the IMF steps in and has their loan accepted, they impose world-wide standards on the country involved and the rest of the financial markets breathe a sigh of relief.....I know that this is a very simplified version of the events,but I believe it captures the essence of what I am trying to say. This standardization has served to decrease the reliance on gold as a backdrop for currencies, and I think that CB selling of reserves is confirmation of this thinking. There is still a steady, to increasing, demand for gold, but I think the emphasis has shifted more toward being a commodity. Central bank selling has masked, to some extent, the increase in demand because they are flooding the market with their supplies. This has created a bit of oversupply which has driven price down. This is resulting in smaller, less efficient companies being consolidated and more costly mines being closed. It is also resulting in more cost-effective measures being implemented at the remaining mines. So what has been happening is a decreasing supply from mining and a lowering in the cost per ounce to produce. If I'm right with my thinking, then the question, for me, becomes: " Is the timing right to buy now?" I don't think so.......I still think there is oversupply from central bank selling and I want to wait and see how Japan finances their way out of their current problems.....they could sell US Treasuries.....or they could sell gold.....if they sell gold, we have not come close to seeing the bottom yet. However, I still think that I want to invest in the stock of a good company when I think the timing is right......my research has led me to think that Barrick (ABX) is the way I will choose.....they have the lowest production cost per ounce in the Western Hemisphere, they are making money at these levels, they are increasing sales in these conditions and they are beginning to look real attractively priced. My opinions and 40 cents will get you a cup of coffee.......in some places!