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Technology Stocks : Activision....Returns! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Burlitis who wrote (706)	12/4/1997 8:18:00 PM
From: Lord Smooth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1992

I've held activision for two years. I bought it when it tumbled from $20 to $9 in December 1995. Too bad I bought it at $12.5. Regarding ATVI as a takeover: unless it is a hostile takeover it's not going to happen. This is Kotick's dream to run this company. He's been wanting to run a computer game maker since he was a little kid. He dropped out of UofM to startup his own little venture, and when he was in his low 20's he conviced a venture capitalist to give him the reigns to run activision. He persuaded debt holders to convert debt to equity when it was about to be liquiddated. That is why I bought activision two years ago. Kotick is going to fight bight and scratch his way into making ATVI a powerhouse computer game company or die trying. On valuation: Over the long term atvi will be an excellent investment. However there are some negatives -- fighting for retail shelf space, margin pressure... It's a fierece industry. Over the past two years I've seen ATVI yo yo back and forth from $10 to $16. While I believe ATVI is a good long term hold say 18 months or more out, I am getting tired of bouncing up and down with this thing. I am seriously considering selling it at this price of about $16 1/2 and waiting it to hit $10 again. T\|his is not technical analysis. ATVI will probably do well in the xmas season, but in the off season margins will suck again and the stock will go down. I bet you, just a bet, there is a sell-off after christmas. Not a massive sell-off, but a gradual decline to 12,11 or 10, and then it goes up again. In other words, if you own ATVI now I would hold on to it. I would not be a new buyer now. I'd wait to get in at a lower price. good luck... S