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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MCsweet who wrote (51041)	3/5/2013 6:11:48 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78704

PWRD - we will see. I did not sell today, I will likely wait for the earnings. OTOH, I don't expect the earnings to be great - more like GAME, less like CYOU. So, yeah, divvie would be the only possible catalyst short term. Longer term "Neverwinter" buzz could be a catalyst. However, getting good ROI from MMOs in Western markets is IMHO tough. There's a lot of competition, very high expectations, little "brand" loyalty and no guarantees for success. In some ways Diablo 3/Guild Wars 2 business model - sell box for $60, free play, some extra paid digital content - is probably the wisest, but even it does not guarantee great success. It's also unclear of how well PWRD Chinese leadership will work with Western "Neverwinter" developers and whether there will be culture mismatches that may doom the game. It seems that NCSoft managed to work fine with ArenaNet, so positive outcomes are possible. Even longer term, I think I will try to extricate myself from Chinese gaming company positions. I think the competition will grow even more fierce, the development costs will go up and results will be worse. OTOH, in the next five years I am pretty sure there will be another online-social-gaming bubblet where these cos run up a lot. I'll probably miss it though, since it's hard to predict and hard to hold during a rise from super cheap to cheap to fairly valued to overvalued. :/