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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CatLady who wrote (7811)	12/4/1997 1:11:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

CL: sorry forgot about PNDA. Will look at it tomorrow morning or late tonight. Yes some very clever people have not been able to reject the hypothesis that price variations follow a random pattern with a positive drift of about 10-11%/year. In the short term, however, you can ignore the positive element. IMO prices tend to follow momuntum. when I sell because I think the price is high the stock keeps going up for a while... when I enter thinking the price is low enough the price usually keeps falling for a while. however, sometimes you have overreaction to negative news and if you sit there waiting the thing turns back up.... Indeed a random process. Have not figured out a way of making a quik winning trade..... Pancho

To: CatLady who wrote (7811)	12/5/1997 5:44:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

CL: sorry about the delay. Was checking my notes and realized I had already looked at PNDA. Unfortunately my note was a very short one: (OK to short technology may make it dangerous trading around 7 high of 9) My recollection is that the cad/cam workstations they make may go nowhere (if SUNW, HPW, DELL, Silicon Graphics are competitors). What makes PNDA dangerous for me is that in the little time I devoted to it, I did not understand the big picture [reason] for shorting. Given your background, you probably do. If this is the case and you feel this is a dog "a la BFIT". Go ahead and short it. Another reason is that rightly or wrongly I prefer to short stocks trading over 10 due to less demanding margin requirements. Sorry I could not be of any more help. Pancho