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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (51055)	3/7/2013 1:07:13 AM
From: Brian Sullivan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78464

Here is a link to a long article on CF seekingalpha.com I also like POT which seems to me to be a slightly better value. But perhaps owning both would also work like in the disk drive market. STX and WDC

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (51055)	3/7/2013 9:31:12 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78464

Fertilizers: Looking back, I believe you've been in CF for a couple years. Me too. It's done well imo. The nitrogens seem to have done better than the phosphates. I'm still holding AGU, MOS. I've traded YARIY, which I am buying again at current levels. That one's tougher to get information on, and so I have less confidence in it, although as the SA article points out, it's a big player.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (51055)	4/5/2013 10:31:43 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78464

My top 10-ish positions in no particular order: GLW, MSFT, MGDDY, MHR-D, DRAGF. New positions: GLRE Positions increased: JPM, PMGLF, NOK, NICK, CF, CJES, MGDDY Positions reduced: MAUXF Positions eliminated: AXP Flip-flop: Probably the most interesting question about this message is why the heck there are only 5 positions in the top 10 position list. :) There are multiple reasons: - I don't want include small positions as if they were big. Unfortunately, most of my positions are smallish. - I lack conviction in my larger positions to increase them into top 10 size - A number of stocks that could have reached top 10 status ran up in price and I did not get to buy "full" top 10 position. - A few stocks from top 10 either got sold on appreciation or dropped in value and dropped out. Overall, I can't say I am very happy with my top-10. :) Not that I am very happy with the rest of my portfolio, although there are some bright spots that can't be seen from these messages (e.g. MKL). Added NICK as somewhat cheap stock to see whether management will reach some kind of buyout deal. Added JPM as somewhat cheap bank play. Added NOK, PMGLF, CF, CJES, MGDDY as they fell to cheaper prices. Out of these, only CF and MGDDY are possible long-term holds. Regarding NOK, PMGLF and CJES, the investments are likely to resolve themselves in a year or two at max. Especially for NOK and PMGLF, either they turn around or they don't. Established new tracking position in GLRE - Einhorn investment play. I should have sold all MAUXF on the run up to $2. I was too slow, but at least I sold a bit. Sold AXP position. IMHO, the stock is overvalued. However, this is one of the forever-companies that are tough to sell. I can only argue that I hold AXP through BRK and possibly BRK is more attractive right now than AXP. :)