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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (1745)	12/4/1997 1:29:00 PM
From: tekgk	Respond to of 5676

I think that you are correct, private money is still flowing in from SEA but Central Bank money stopped flowing back in June and actually started to reverse slightly in November. Private money will eventually follow CB money with a 4-6 months of lag IMHO. I also think that SEA investors will eventually recognize that there are better bargains in SEA than in the US and that nationalistic sentiment will be whipped up by the politicians. Japan is in such bad shape that they will eventually be forced to cash in some of their treasuries. I think that this is already taking place whenever the long bond drops below 6% but I have no evidence for this other than observing what happens at 6% or so. I am watching Japanese reserves etc. for confirmation of this hypothesis. Our markets have been driven to the current levels by about 1.2 trillion dollars in foreign investments over the past two years and the party is now starting to end. Once everyone figures it out, the market will suffer a significant setback IMHO. I am trying to be just in front of the fall without becoming another bear casualty.