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To: LT2011 who wrote (11820)3/9/2013 7:59:46 PM
From: travisnye  Respond to of 13111
 
The clue is the steadiness of the price when you blink or turn away from watching the trading and 100K shares have been added to the volume. And then another 100K right before your eyes are added. Not that it matters whether or not you see it or you don't. What matters is the price in response to these transactions.
Block trades not affecting the price. That's what it looked like to me on Friday.
I am at Level I, if that's what volume and price movements I watch may be called? I see the the simple number at the bid and the ask which probably results in some limits of a deeper understanding. The bid and ask volumes are tricky. But lately, or recently, the numbers have been increasing. Those are the light of day numbers. I say that because often the trade volume will pop but the bid and ask numbers don't change. Or, maybe the bid / ask numbers are actually stable and are feeding the volume without changing because they are actually there? I don't know. And I don't care. If the bid and ask numbers are on the rise over time, that is observable and for me, meaningful. Those numbers across the day and week and further, are observably increasing.
So, if large volume numbers tick along during the day and for the most part, the price doesn't move, what are we seeing? It's interpretive and pure conjecture on my part. But, I need to understand what I am seeing, so my effort to figure it out over time may be accurate at this Level of interpretation or not. Those deeper Levels may know differently and more accurately what the action means to them watching what they have access to.
That all is my way of a disclaimer for what I think is happening.
When you smell bread baking, you smell bread. At Level I, I smell bread. At Level II maybe the type of bread being baked is discernable?
When the price is fixed, or should I say stable, and all these shares are trading, it suggests to me that there is interest. Is it that the interest is equal? Buyers and Sellers evening out? Maybe. Or has there been an agreement made to gather shares without pressure affecting the price? Where are these agreement shares coming from? Dam if I know. Don't know either, whether such an agreement is being observed. Nothing like the possibility of an agreement in the light of day would surprise me knowing what has officially been booked in the financial arena over recent years generally.
Then the question shifts over to the question, is no price movement on heavy volume meaningful? Of course it is. Just as the price down on light volume or price up on light volume and price down on heavy volume and price up on heavy volume are meaningful conditions. It remains, however, to know, if it is ever to be known, why?
TA doesn't ask why?
I know LT2011, you know all this. It is fun to play around with it. Especially when there is some movement we have not seen in a long time.
There is always a reason. How important is the reason this time?
This is exceptional volume in the context of quite some while having passed without anything to crow about. It suggests to me, something is going on. I can say this unequivocally and without hesitation. Is it institutional? Is it less formal? What happens next?
I smell bread.



To: LT2011 who wrote (11820)3/10/2013 12:23:26 PM
From: LT2011  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13111
 
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