Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (24201)	12/4/1997 1:57:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Sounds way too easy. Ill backtest that tonight with current data. I'll backtest it at work right now with a chart that goes thru mid 96. 50 day exponential moving average right? No, I don't have data right now, will have to wait until tonite. I'll post the results then MEATHAD

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (24201)	12/4/1997 2:01:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 176387

Olu, For trading, the more volatile stocks provide better opportunities. What do you think about doing that system for INTC where it's really apparent? Lee

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (24201)	12/4/1997 3:23:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Found my old data I misunderstood your origional post. You said Buy DELL at any 52 week high and sell it when it crashes thru' it 50day EMA. This really makes no sense... you'll have to explain how to pick historical entry points based on the 52 week high. Is it a calander 52, rolling 52, where do you begin? Any I thought you meant use the 50day EMA price crossover for entry and exit points. Anyway, I backtested the 50 day EMA on 6 years worth of Dell data. The results were poor. Price on 6/5/90 = 1.83/shr Price on 6/25/96 = 25.94/shr Assumptions Long positions only 1000 shares each trade Commision $25/trade No stops Trades executed at the open following day after price crossed 50 day EMA Trading gain = 219% Buy and hold = 1,417% SYSTEM TEST PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR: Moving Average Crossover System (EMA) on DELL COMPUTER CP From 6/5/1990 to 6/24/1996 beginning with 1000 shares. Current position is LONG @ 16.44, entered on 3/26/1996, S U M M A R Y Total Net Profit: $8500.26 Total percentage gain/loss: 219.36% Annualized rate of return: 36.21% Average trade gain/loss ($): $163.47 Average trade gain/loss (%): 4.65% T R A D E S T A T I S T I C S Total no. of trades: 52 No. Profitable Trades: 13 Percentage profitable trades: 25.00% Using price crossing over 50 day EMA generates too many false trades and whipsaws. Only 1 in 4 trades were profitable. Using a finely tuned MACD helps to eliminate false signals but sacrifices timeleness. MEATHEAD

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (24201)	12/4/1997 11:07:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Olu, I backtested your/IBD's Buy DELL at any 52 week high and sell it when it crashes thru' it 50day EMA strategy Price on 6/5/90 = 1.83/shr Price on 12/4/97 = 91.5/shr Assumptions Long positions only No comissions No stops No taxes paid Trading gain = 426% Buy and hold = 5,000% 11 trades were made 10 were profitable Largest gain 144.61% Current position is "out" Next entry ~$104 While this strategy yielded mostly profitable trades, the results pale in comparison to buy and hold. In fact, this strategy for Dell is one of the least profitable. The 20 and 60 day WMA crossover generated 2550%, 20 trades, 12 profitable. Olu, do you backtest your strategies? Anyway, my origional post posed the challange of find a trading system for DELL that outperforms the buy and hold strategy. You said "that's easy"... just do this, so maybe you didn't understand my origional post. Still would like a hot shot TA to show me the magic indicators.. anybody out there? Best of luck... MEATHEAD