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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ILCUL8R who wrote (12650)	12/4/1997 9:09:00 PM
From: Pat Allen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Currently I am limited to real time quotes and temporarily to delayed graphs (since Lombard recently discontinued real time intraday graphs.) In any case I'm working on other items so I check in about 3 times an hour. My significant draw back is being slow to pull the trigger. Along time ago I use to do forecasting with exponentail smoothing from college days operational research classes but I'm not taking it so seriously now and an just looking at curve shapes. This day trading effort is secondary to my holding a larger (for me) long position. I don't know if it will pan out but two items that may work in a day trader favor would be: If demand and supply comes in waves then (ignoring outside disturbences) the probability that the price will continue in the same direction is slightly higher than it will reverse directions. Detect a short term trend and bite off a small piece. Limit negitive moves by getting out while letting let positive moves run until they reverse direction. (not always easier said than done) Similar to Tito's earlier comment: If the small investor is optimistic there seems to be a high point at the begining of the day that dissipates through lunch. (A small effect at best.) I'll probably cover my position by the end of the day since I think AMAT with head north in the near to intermediate future and I want to be entirely on board. Anyway I don't know how this day trading will work out but its interesting enough the give it a limited try. I suspect most of the thread out there is more savy than myself. Best Regards,