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Strategies & Market Trends : The Ego Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ames who wrote (11945)	3/19/2013 11:41:54 PM
From: JimisJim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12175

We're also seeing the LT data since this whole shale gas revolution began. Production curves, well life, how long (and low) the production tails are with these things LT. We can start crunching actual total production numbers from some of the early wells/fields vs. LT all-in costs for each well. How profitable are they really, esp. at these prices? And let's not forget the 2nd tier storage effect that drilled/unproduced conventional and unconventional has been looming over the ng market -- is it really just another form of storage? Really? It is certainly produceable reserves, but I wonder how many have been thinking it was simply "unconventional storage." I think numbers are being crunched nervously over these shale wells. Their prodigious initial production rates were so eye-popping, a lot of us lost our eye sight.

To: ames who wrote (11945)	3/19/2013 11:51:11 PM
From: hubris33	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12175

eh, unless someone edu-macates me different, me thinks the projections many are making about the USA being "energy independent" in a decade or so are red herrings. While we many be independent from a BTU perspective or from an "oil-equivalent" perspective I do not think we will be oil independent. Problem is that in their enthusiasm over the shale gas craze, many convert natural gas to oil-equivalents. Now that might be a useful trick as to simplify BTU contents, cash flows, reserves or reservoir values it is a false move. Natural Gas can not directly replace gasoline in our transportation sector on a one-for-one basis or on an EQ basis. Our energy independence is really a question of oil imports to make gasoline (and diesel) for transportation. It isn't clear to me that we are increasing oil (gasoline raw material) production by an amount great enough to offset oil imports. The only way we get there is drill the heck out of the North Slope, GOM, off shore Atlantic & Pacific AND greatly reduce demand by forcing the transportation fleet to be 50% or more All Electric Vehicles - ie Nissan Leaf (Chevy Volt won't cut it!) Since I don't see the current administration permitting all that drilling...that leaves us with.... So a long way around of saying that I disagree with the statement that "new drilling tech will threaten to undermine OPEC's quotas and prices in the 2nd half of the decade." er, OK, what am I missing, where is the ignorance in these statements?