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Strategies & Market Trends : The Ego Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hubris33 who wrote (11971)	3/25/2013 11:13:13 AM
From: hubris33	Respond to of 12175

Oh Look! POG down $20 in 8 hours overnight! Below 1600 - AGAIN! ............. .......... Yeah, Cyprus had something to do with it - removal of the fear premium. But am I the only one who saw the roots of such in the action of COT? (1) Open Interest has been contracting as POG has risen - i.e. no support for the up move and break down of recent "up trend" in OI expansion. Of course as of Friday the Apr OI still has ~122K of OI to shed before the first Notice day on Thursday. (A) Roll-over rate was running 30-60% prior to Thu last week. Thu say 118%, Fri 83%. But we are still loosing ground over all. If POG is going to stage a rally, then now is the time. Key will be how high the Jun OI climbs. If it can get well above the 264K level (high of Apr OI) then the down slide could be ending. If not, we see JUN OI start to decline immediately on peaking and thus POG slogs through until May-Jun-Jul when the Aug contract takes the lead (or not). Er, sans some dump in the Markets that sends investors looking for safety. Oh and as far as PMs go - FUGGEDDABOUDIT! Or at least be cautious.... I expect Revenues and profits to be hammered relative to a year ago. Remember the second or third week of April is the time when the majors start reporting 1Q results. POG has a 60-day moving average of 1629.39. For the last half of the quarter of 2013 POG has not been above 1620. Therefore, companies are going to report lower average sale prices, especially those that waited until the end of the quarter to sell their backlog. A year ago POG started low in the 1530 range but climbed steadily throughout the quarter and ended above 1750. Last year, the 60-day average was over 1700. Point is that 1Q13 Revenue figures compared to 1Q12 figures are going to be DOWN - unless of course the company has growing production to offset the decline? Profitability (Net Income) will be pinched as well. Then with the "new" reporting of "all-in sustainable production costs," the numbers could look even worse to those not up on the sector. A combo of these factors juxtapositioned with a lagging POG doesn't look like a scenario for a rocket ride upward. Many retailers or those that don't follow the sector could get a shock on the "news." You think many PMs are going to advance notice/warn of lower Nets? But hey... I'm just sayin'. A. Would not be surprised to see the calendar roll over to Apr with 3-4K worth of Apr OI still on the books. This seems to be about the "norm." 1. Message 28788842