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To: micromike who wrote (14642)	12/5/1997 12:58:00 AM
From: Gerald R. Lampton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24154

>MS will lose and have to pay the one million/day. Not very likely, at least not this time around. If there were a reasonable probability of them paying, it seems to me they'd be trying to settle the thing. Maybe they are, but all I've seen in their public statements is bellicosity. So, I think they intend to, and unless negotiations are going on behind closed doors DOJ should assume that they will, fight it all the way to the end. >Tomorrow we will find out. No, tomorrow we will probably find out about a discovery schedule and what the scope of discovery will be. We might find out about another briefing schedule for summary judgment motions, too, kind of like the round we just went through. The longer the schedule and the more extensive the discovery allowed, the more of a victory it is for Microsoft. If Microsoft gets less than what it wants on any of that, expect them to appeal. The appeal won't go far, but it will run down the clock a little more. >If MS >wins I think there is some behined the scenes funny business going on since the >evidence is quit overwhelming. I disagree. I think there is evidence and argument to be made on both sides. DOJ wants to talk about general antitrust law and the abstract language of the agreement, while Microsoft wants to talk about the negotiations leading up to the agreement, what the government allegedly knew and what the intent of the parties was. I think we can debate the relative strength of the two kinds of evidence and the merits of the two approaches, but to say the evidence is "overwhelming" in favor of DOJ is, I think, wrong. If anything, based on how the two sides are behaving, what they are saying and what (little) I know about contract law as it applies to stipulated antitrust judgments, I'd say this battle is Microsoft's to lose. >I also think that MS spin doctors shouldn't have >harrassed the DOJ this just make them more determined to bust MS. I think you do have a point here. If DOJ loses this one, the short-term to medium term impact will be favorable to Microsoft, but in the long run, it will probably result in greater determination in the government to "do sdomething" about software monopolies and, as a result, greater regulation of Microsoft. Bill Gates can either take the initiative and break up the company himself, or he can let the government do it for him, AFTER a long period of ever-increasing, deadening consent decrees, lawsuits and regulations. If this Democratic Administration can't deal with Microsoft, expect that to become a campaign issue in '98 and beyond (How well do Microsoft's competitive practices sit with Richard Gephardt?) But it's not just '98 or even the election in 2000. This is an issue which is NOT going to go away. Microsoft has had it pretty cushy during the '80's and early '90's. But the Golden Age of Reagan is over. We are starting to come put of an unusually conservative, pro-business era in politics. Expect and be prepared for a more populist, antibusiness political environment. As I said before: How many politicians in the next decade are going to get elected by running against mighty, evil Microsoft? >Also if MS wins the consumers lose. I don't think it will necessaily turn out that way. If Netscape can get its act together on Constellation and beyond, what we may end up with is a new product category called the "graphical user interface." That is to say, by making the browser one with the rest of the user interface, Microsoft has only raised the stakes in its competition with Netscape. Now, instead of just losing control over the browser, Microsoft risks losing control of the whole desktop. Of course, for that to happen, Netscape will have to offer a sufficiently compelling alternative that Joe Slouch-potato (including those in the nation's corporate MIS departments) will want to go to the trouble of replacing the existing Windows GUI. Maybe a loss by DOJ would sufficiently put the fear of God into them that they will feel motivated to do what it takes to compete effectively against Microsoft for control of the whole desktop.