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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearded One who wrote (7827)	12/4/1997 7:01:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 9285

Bearded One, you bring up some interesting points with your ZITEL, AOL and YHOO comparison. However a big difference is the amount of institutional ownership and coverage. Even at Zitel's peak it never had anyone credible covering the stock. Thus it could and did get completely "nuts". YHOO and AOL are different. If on a technical basis YHOO begins to falter you may see some changes in recommendations to cover their butts. Just like in the y2k craze I expect more search engine companies going IPO soon. YHOO and others look like they are already losing momemtum. I'm going to hang in there for a while. I think it should be worth less than 30 but will cover in the low 40's and wait for another run to the high 40's before shorting again. Jim

To: Bearded One who wrote (7827)	12/4/1997 7:21:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Bearded One, I forgot AOL. I don't know enough about the situation. I'm sure it's overvalued, but I don't like shorting companies with Price-to-sales ratios at 4.5 when most of my other shorts have P/S ratios of 10+. I think a much better case can be made for AOL's valuation than Yahoo's. It's much tougher to come in and steal AOL's business than it is to create a better search engine or directory. Jim

To: Bearded One who wrote (7827)	12/4/1997 11:35:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

BeardedOne >>Personally, I really want to short AOL and Yahoo. Every couple of weeks I call up some pals on the phone and talk about it. But we never can figure out what piece of news is going to come out that, in this market, will make the stock actually drop in price. If someone does, please tell me.<< Liked your piece. Yes I studied AOL and Yahoo financials and valuations carefully before shorting and I could not justify valuation. They are so overpriced that IMO you have to be nuts to be long. I can't believe any analyst can come up with a valid reason to say AOL is a buy. Alot of mediocre people out there. I guess that is why some can beat the market. The normal distribution at work. 20% of the people have got 80% of the brains.... Pancho