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To: Return to Sender who wrote (1732)	3/28/2013 8:36:01 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8239

CAT

To: Return to Sender who wrote (1732)	3/29/2013 2:12:56 PM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8239

Hi RtS, I think the concept is interesting but I'm not sure I can agree with the conclusion of the Leavitt analyst. I didn't have access to the video when I posted the chart yesterday, fwiw. The first thing that I think he's missed or taken for granted is that CAT went up from a low of $24/share in 2009 to a high of $115 in 2011. Over 400%! Simply stunning, IMO. The chart he's showing starts with the lows made in the fall of 2011, so it's ignoring the absolutely monster moves the stock made prior to his chart, up 400% then down 40% into his starting point. These are massive swings for a stock with such a huge market cap! Back to his presentation and looking at his chart, the stock then went up 60%, making a double top. I think this is very important! However, you don't see this double top because of where his chart started. I think we could actually say that the stock has gone sideways, in a trading range, since the decline off this second top. There's no question that when a major stock like CAT has a 2 month down trend (like we've see since the end of Jan), there's plenty of questions which arise. The analyst is on target to ask these questions but I'm not so sure that his conclusion will turn out to be validated in the long run. After the depressed spending during 2008/09, we've seen CAT's revs jump from $42B in 10 to $65b in 12. I don't think it's too surprising that 2013 is going to be weak, in light of the huge jump made in the past 2 years! Keep in mind that when I say weak, I don't mean a drastic drop but simply it looks like this year won't pass last year's revenue, with a drop of 3 or 4% predicted. I'm curious how others see this?