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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert w fain who wrote (2341)	12/4/1997 8:46:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 6180

<<<could you please explain the larger battle---you got my attention with your post.>> robert -- I probably should have chosen a different metaphor. "Battle" is a bit strong. I'm referring to the positioning that's been going on for a couple years, now, between the different chip and systems' companies for ADSL. Because of the hold-up in the 56K standard decision, xDSL could very well make it obsolete before it has a chance of succeeding. (Though some, like myself, never thought it would, standard or no standard.) A little background: For well over a year USR worked with TI on an ADSL solution and when it came to deciding on a partner, USR went with Aware. They wanted to own (steal) Amati's line codes and Amati said, "No thanks, for what you're offering, we'd make more on royalties alone." I think I posted earlier USR had gone with ADI. That was wrong. They actually licensed Aware's technology and said they'd develop their own codes and use TI's C6X --- which left ADI out of the loop. It all seemed very strange since USR had spent so much time and money developing a solution with TI/Amati's technology. Fastforward to today: with COMS apparently moving its 56K business to ADI, you have to wonder what the motivation is. Have they discovered they're not first in line for the Amati ANSI-compliant C6X solution and someone else is? Are they jockeying for position by threatening to take their current business elsewhere? Are they building bridges to ADI after burning them by giving their Aware-based ADSL to TI? Not sure if anyone's bluffing. I just know you should never make a threat you're not willing to keep. Right now Alcatel is the giant in ADSL. TI, with their C6X-based ADSL, could compete but at a different level --- they don't want to do systems. That's where Siemens comes in --- and anyone else they can win back from ADI and Motorola. As for MOT, they lose any hope of competing if TI gains control of Amati's DMT. Their CG chip is static and any upgrades will have to be re-negotiated. And then there's Lucent. To my knowledge they don't have a DMT partner yet. Will they stay out of the field --- stick to their CAP solutions? Concede everything else? Hard to say. And, now, as I'm about to post this, I've just been told Westell's CEO, Gary Seamans, is taking a medical leave of absence. dljdirect.com I would not want to own that stock tomorrow. Visions of Bay Networks. Sorry I rambled regarding the "battle." The highspeed field has been in a process of consolidating and positioning for two years. It's not over yet. Watch for Cisco and some of the other networkers to play major roles, as well. Regards, Pat