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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yorikke who wrote (13977)	4/1/2013 8:29:25 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Respond to of 33421

Thanks to Mick & Keith and the boys a little T & A can be a diversified discussion

To: Yorikke who wrote (13977)	4/3/2013 1:53:41 AM
From: John Pitera	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Yorikke, my thoughts on TA extend to just about all actively traded markets... Your response sounds like its focusing on US equities.......... I spend about 4 times more hours a weekly looking a currencies and currency crossses, debt instruments and yield curves in 5 to 10 foreign markets.... as well as areas such as gold and silver and commodity markets such as corn..... where as you probably know prices have come down significantly. I truly consider the US equity market and equity markets overall to be a third of what is making the world go round...... The currency markets some times set you up with home run positioning trading like last November the newly elected PM mandated that the BOJ was going to let the currency depreciate and actively demanded it....... those are markets where they are just about giving money away if one is looking at the global geopolitical and economic developments. you dom't even need TA in some of these instances over time. The US Stock market has had super inflows due to QE1, 2, 3.......... and yet when you look at a list of leadership financial stocks including JPM, GS, stocks like GOOG, AAPL, which has already been cut in half..... I was on the phone 2 days ago with a long time stock cohort and I was commenting that the stocks in the financial sector and other key leaderships stocks actually look like they have should be shorted and thats with the SPX etc making these nominal new highs. If I get some time , tomorrow I will see about posting some charts......... I had dinner with a very close relative on Easter Sunday and he just said that Houston was crazy booming the since last summer....he said it was almost like the insane boom, we had in Houston in the very late 1970's oil mania. I am hearing some talk that really sounds like Feb 2000 or Q 4 of 2007. I want the trees to grow to the skies as I put money in private corporate ventures that did yield profits in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 John

To: Yorikke who wrote (13977)	4/4/2013 1:59:05 AM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Y, here is a chart........gold is in a very interesting and fairly complicated pattern.....it has many elements of a market that is in a descending triangle which usually one of the most reliable chart patterns to which would suggest that we will break the horizontal baseline support and in that case a reasonable target for the ultimate end of the decline would be about $400 lower than 1923$ price top out in Sept of 2011 and these jagged lows in say thw 1528-1535 range....... the chart looks lousy and I would not be looking to buy this support but would be shorting it on a break 2 day close below $1500 andwondering what will be happening in the global economy if it goes down $400 bucks from here. The very deep momentum generated on the RSI on it's Feb 2013 decline almost mandates that this chart is going go break down and the price of gold denominated in USD is going lower. The XAU is down 50% and is showing a double momentum buy signal, but a quarter of those companies are on the financial rocks....... if gold breaks down and we see a meaningful decline, then I do not know how you can say that TA is Nonsense. Our FED and the Central Banks of the world have driven us off into fantasy worlds........ but I would not throw the baby out with the bathwater......... Interesteing the XAU..... which is down from 228 to 128...... that chart is actually showig a double momentum buy divergence...... but remember its for the companies that staty in business.... John PS constance brown has written an excellent book on TA that has been updated in 2012.....she has a very interesting of using a methodology of using specifice ema averagers overlaid on the RSI and I believe she's on to something good. I hope to discuss her methodology..... and maybe generate a few books sales for her sometime soon. John