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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jbershad who wrote (2350)	12/4/1997 10:18:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

>>>Pat, how long have you been investing? The funds will try to run the stock down to the ground. True its cheap and I don't intend to sell. Be prepared for a beating.<<< Forever, through managers; 2 1/2 years on my own. Yes, I expect the stock to fall further, too. Since I haven't tendered my AMTX holding (about 85% of my portfolio), I don't mind. I'll wait for it to turn around and then add. Whether analysts are accurate isn't the issue. They still move stocks. A friend who's a partner in a major international law firm sent the following in response to something I'd said about analysts and it's about as accurate as I think we'll get: >>> As for analyst credibility, I think they worry more about whether they've predicted properly the trajectory of the stock . . . rather than the details of the "story." They're not historians or journalists; they're capitalists. Granted, they can't lie to make things move, but they generally don't. On the other hand, if their sources are wrong, but the stock moves in the right direction (for whatever reason), they've done their job and they haven't "lied." Being an analyst is an interesting job because being "right" doesn't necessarily mean being accurate, and having the correct analysis doesn't necessarily mean that the resulting prediction will be correct. Rest assured, their predictions are taken seriously by their employers and the Street; if they're consistently "wrong" (particularly if they get their customers into stocks based on unfounded rumors), the consequences are usually swifter and truer than anything that the SEC can mete out. As a result, unless the analysts really have new information to feed to the market, I tend to discount the recommendations. That's not to say that they won't move markets (at least short-term) because of supply and demand. Longer-term, the random walk will win out. The cool thing about a market as frothy as today's is, there are all kinds of overreactions (high and low) that can be very profitable. I've found a few and watched dozens of others. >>> Certainly the voice of experience. Regards, Pat