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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (2882)	4/8/2013 7:12:51 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 4720

Hi Ox - One technician I follow was talking about CAT today. He says it is in a long term A-B-C- Down move with an eventual target of $57.00/share. So I do not think we have really seen the sell off in these cyclical stocks yet. Maybe another 6 months or more. I for one am waiting but this and DE are high on my list. JOY will be another good one too. I have been nibbling at some of the resource companies but I know I am early here too. Picked up a few shares of AAUKY, and am close to buying some VALE (below $15.00/share) and AGGPY (low $6's). As we discussed earlier, it will require at least a 24 month hold (maybe 36 months) before we see the peak again in these resource stocks. My thinking is that after this period, the U.S. market maybe much stronger and the other global market may be still in recovery mode (especially Europe and perhaps China). My thinking is to try to find those cyclical companies that would benefit from a U.S. lead recovery 36 month's down the road. DE may be a better pick and there may be others especially those cyclical companies that have a large exposure to the U.S./North American market (maybe those that build out, service and or supply the North American Oil shale infrastructure). Did you notice the Buy GE made today? GE to buy Lufkin Industries for $3.1B GE to buy oilfield equipment maker Lufkin in attempt to grow its oil and gas business They paid a 30% premium and that actually may turn out to be a good buy when one looks back in 5 years. So continue to post your ideas w/ this in mind. I think if we put together our shopping list and be patient, there are some good gains to be made. One side thought is maybe there are some undervalued domestic steel companies that can be bought at/near tangible book value. The comment on AA is that because that industry is so energy intensive, they have a hard time expanding their margins with Oil at $91.00/barrel and/or NG above $4.00/mcf. I am not sure if the domestic steels are in the same boat. Think Industrial, specialized equipment and/or service available close to BV and/or EPS at or below historical mean, many analyst downgrades selling at or below 200 day MA. EKS