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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (2902)	4/14/2013 8:20:36 AM
From: bruwin	Respond to of 4720

Yes, there’s no doubt that there are very few ‘tools’, indicators, etc.., that will give one an ongoing and 100% reliable forecast of future pricing, especially in the field of Technical Analysis. After all, the data, from which many indicators’ mathematical formulae derive their answer, is generally based on Price and Time. And by their nature those parameters reflect the exchange that has taken place, in the past, between buyers and sellers. And who knows what may have motivated or influenced them (e.g. “Mr.Market"??) at any particular time, which may have had very little to do with the actual quality of well managed and usually profitable companies. Early 2009, with the S&P's fall from 1400 to around 700, and its subsequent rise to its current 1588, could be a case in point. Speaking for myself, I would not rely too heavily on the Moving Average aspect of what’s contained in the StockChart’s strategy. IMO, it’s an interesting and supportive aspect of the strategy, but it’s not likely to be correct 100% of the time, for obvious reasons. What I thought may be of greater use and possibly of interest to anyone involved in Sector Rotation, would be the free, readily obtainable and ongoing “Sector Summary”, provided by StockCharts which tends to show which sector of the market is currently attracting the greatest interest within the market place. Having said that, I would, personally, still target, do ‘due diligence’ and interrogate individual companies within those favoured sectors on the basis of their specific and relevant financial fundamentals. It could be that, as a sector’s position turns from ‘negative’ to ‘positive’, there may very well be good companies whose stock price may have been depressed due to “market or sector sentiment”, but whose quality of fundamentals may now come to the fore and result in an upward price trend. Personally, I’m not into ETF’s or Mutual Funds, etc... I prefer investing in a smaller group of companies and buy or sell them as circumstances may dictate. But that’s just me. Others will have their own way(s) of doing things.