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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (51302)	4/14/2013 3:54:11 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78744

HSNI went up from 1$ to 16$ share and was still cheap....would you have bought? Maybe, maybe not. :) Bought CF now after selling out in ~$60 range. Jury is still out how long I will keep it. Bought AAPL couple times through their ascent to $700 (and promptly sold out), I bought some after its current "pullback". Bought GOOG couple times through their ascent to $800 (and promptly sold out). Bought MAUXF, MHR after 3-5x runups from bottom - traded MHR at even mostly, sold most MAUXF at gain. Bought BRK - well it's not 16x bagger recently, but 16x bagger long term... :) Bought some microcap(s) after 3-5x runups. So I guess, I am fine in buying stock that went up from 1$ to 16$ share and was still cheap. I am just not good in holding onto it. :) Note though. :) These discussions usually happen during bull markets. I.e. stocks are going up and value investors are either not paying up, or selling and then regretting missed gains. You won't see them if a real pullback (crash, bear market) comes up. Then everyone will be regretting not selling at the top and buying at higher prices. ;)

To: Spekulatius who wrote (51302)	4/14/2013 4:54:55 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78744

HSNI went up from 1$ to 16$ share and was still cheap....would you have bought? After considering, I will say likely no. That's because I would tend to put HSNI in context with other stocks in the sector and the market itself. Perhaps that's wrong anchoring. Still, HSNI bottomed in Dec of '08 and began its ascent. Meanwhile other stocks in the sector and stocks in general were still falling further. By June the market was up and so was HSNI continuing its rise. It might've been possible or reasonable to conclude that HSNI, having begun its move earlier than so many, might stall or fall back -- the market recovery itself was still nascent. Not sure I see cheap though based on what the author says: Something like, "Mindy (CEO) said all the right things" and "a valuation in the low 20’s seemed very reasonable given a reasonable upward margin path" don't say value to me. "in the summer of 2009 with HSNI at $16." I looked at the home-shopping sector in the beginning of 2009. That HSNI was already up to about $7-8 from $2 so quickly while other stocks continued to fall, made me nervous - especially as I didn't understand the value proposition. Anyway, I decided to go with the worst stock in the home-shopping sector, VVTV on the assumption if the sector were to pull though, VVTV might have a chance (only three companies in the space, if I recall correctly). So I bought ValueVision at .28/sh (Jan. '09). The stock subsequently rose, and I sold some shares. Again I reiterate what I like to do --- I kept a stub position. The stock got up to 8 bucks and has dropped now to $4: I still have my stub. A case here where, on paper, I'm much further ahead with the stub position than with the majority of shares I sold on the way up.