hello rc, (1) welcome again, just like last time you made an appearance Message 25974193 (2009 09 27)
(2) you were down on gold back in 2006 Message 22976944 (2006 11 04) when the price was usd 624 per oz
and
(3) you were negative on hk real estate back in same 2006 Message 22951025 (2006 10 27) for some obscure reasons to do with, of all places, n.korea.
(4) since that time, gold has done ~2.32x, and hong kong real estate has done a ~2x, and the particular flavor of real estate i favor in hong kong, industrial lofts on ocean shore, has done ~ 6-7x
(4-i) for example, about this unit Message 24430602 (2008 03 22) that we bought @ hkd 1,340 psf, is now valued @ hkd 6,500, and units in the building are transacting at hkd 7,000. the tenant has been happy to stay put and allow us to up the rent. at some juncture this year we shall up the rent to market rate.
<<... preliminary sale & purchase agreement to acquire an INDUSTRIAL property comprised of most (4 out of 6 units) of one floor in a 22/F building with a big footprint located in ...
... one complication - the vendor will lease back the building at 4.2% net net (net of property tax and management) yield for the next three dire years, with an additional option for 24 months at no more than 10% annual rent increase ...
... why did the vendor sell?
i guess the credit squeeze is squeezing her business, and she needs the cash for her enterprise.
... i am expecting at the very extreme least a 2x capital value within 5 years, perhaps a 3-4x, and should the hk$ revalue up against us$, all the better ...>>
(4-ii) just a few gentle reminders on our earlier chats re hk real estate, that subject which i have always been right and you have always been wrong
Message 26420837 (2010 03 29)
Message 27199021 (2011 02 27)
and
(4-iii) this here below link is extra sweet, and timely, therefore it is very good that you checked-in today
Message 27400015 (2011 05 26)
<<From: J
Sent: Thu, May 26, 2011 6:23:27 PM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of May 23
we do not approve of any "real estate tax" talk ... it is not bullish.
received formal offer for the gold bunker club's property at BLUE-BOX industrial:
- 3,420 sft
- hkd 10m bid (by site aggregator / developer)
- we paid 3.7m on 14 october 2009 (gold was @ $1,060 that day)
- was valued at 6.15m on sept 2010 valuation service
- had always been on sale/lease-back rent at 20k per month (fixed for 3 years)
- original purchase rationale was based on selling the property at 5m in 2015 (silly us)
- tenant has been late in rent several times and we had issued warning letters (tse tse tse)
- shall study lease contract, consult lawyer, and ask for improved bid (figure 12m).
- it would appear that first bid places hk industrial real estate performance relative to gold favorably (increase of 170% vs 43%), not counting rent
what to do with excess savings and surplus capital for n on behalf of the club is a headache.>>
the update re blue-box, we paid hkd 1,081 psf in october 2009, and hold it to this day, and never vacant even as the tenant was occasionally delinquent but nothing a formal letter did not fix.
there is one owner who owns 30% of the building's industrial units, and had always and thankfully blocked redevelopment bids that materialize from time to time.
next week, the 70% of smaller owners shall meet and discuss, newly enabled by the hksar governing authority's special dispensation re the government shall buy the entire site should 65% of the 70% agree to sell, never mind what the nay-sayers wish. the government is talking about a number between 6-8k psf :0)
we have indicated that we shall be vote in alignment w/ any majority will. we are in truth giddy w/ anticipation. at hkd 7k psf, the not-so-elegant industrial loft would be unloaded for hkd 24m, and thus give rise to 6.47x return over 48 months. that would be beautiful.
(5) you say, <<I say hk real estate will soon fall like a rock, within 5 years>>
w/i 5 years? meaning before end of 2018? meaning smack in the interim (2016-2028) when i figure a global triple waterfall repricing leading on to the zero-state monetary reset and right before the onset of the d.k. (darkest interregnum)?
that would be fine.
(5-i) my australian gold mines and mills would be a competitive advantage enabling me to buy buy buy the real estate in hong kong as and whenever the collapse be. the mill in queensland powers up next week. first pour would soon follow assuming there is gold in the rocks.
it would be nice if we are able to off-load blue-box soon, so as to continue the shift of allocation from value-packed hk rental real estate into dirt-cheap australian gold-laden real estate. would be sweet.
you do see my macro-play evolution that has transformed the arena in so far as i am concerned and therefore i am not concerned, do you not?
(5-ii) actually any liberated real estate capital from hong kong would be either put to work in hk real estate of other flavors (g/f shops in up & coming entertainment areas), or used to buy little traditional houses in macau (to help preserve legacy and front-run others into an area that would become the analogy of lang kawi fong entertainment area).
(6) you continue to be negative on hk real estate ?
(6-i) good.
(6-ii) discourse w/ pezz Message 25865450 (2009 08 14)
(6-iii) discussion w/ c2 Message 25956997 (2009 09 20)
cheers, tj
p.s. as would be in any computer game,
the first time making a head-shot clean kill, treated as an accident
the second time, good fortune
third time, unusual
fourth time, skillful
fifth time, superior
sixth time, insider
seventh time, outrageous
eighth time, god-like
ninth time, unreal
tenth time, time to get out, for the counter-parties on the receiving end of terrible weapons
eleventh time, the voice-over intones,
"game over, player #2.
player #1, truth be thy guardian
mortality be their weakness
vindication be your witness
good gaming" |
