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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (100013)

4/16/2013 7:43:00 PM

From: Maurice Winn

5 Recommendations Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 217588

Oh, you want an actual number, not just a generality: <the dead cat bounce and fade shows that's not the case and that this is the real thing. Gold bugs will be thrilled at the low price and will buy. But they will run out of money before the gold supplies run out. There won't be any greater fools to drive the price back up. > I thought that was a near-enough prediction.

But good idea, let's play.

As explained over the last couple of years, the volatility in gold price is a function of the volatility in political processes which are functions of the problems in government cash flow which result from people in government paying themselves big heaps and taking more and more loot for themselves and their electorates who are comparable with drug addicts and drunks.

Then there are things like Egyptian bankruptcy and looming catastrophe because Islamic Jihad is a lot of fun but doesn't actually grow crops or enhance trade with infidels and blasphemers. Stoning potential customers to death is not good for business.

TJ is about to start production of shiny new bars of gold in a day or two with a production cost of some $500 per ounce. Even at $1300, that's a pretty good profit margin. He has obviously put the frighteners on the markets with hordes selling hoards in preparation for the effect of TJ's gold hitting the market. But they missed that it will not be going on the market but will instead be going into storage after quantum tunneling via financial relativity theory to vaults in Hong Kong [by selling it in Oz and buying more in Hong Kong to replace it].

Joking [about TJ's production being scary] aside, there is a lot of the stuff being produced and somebody has to buy it and store it in another hole in the ground, earning no income from it.
RankCountry/RegionGold production (kilograms)

	World	2,700,000
1	China	370,000
2	Australia	250,000
3	United States	230,000
4	Russia	205,000
5	South Africa	170,000
6	Peru	165,000
7	Canada	102,000
8	Indonesia	95,000
9	Uzbekistan	90,000
10	Ghana	89,000
11	Mexico	87,000
	Rest of the world	847,000

Supply and demand seem to be in a reasonable sort of balance. Volatility has been a bit busy with Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Iceland either resolved or going that way. Italy, Spain etc still have to be sorted out. Japan can just carry on forever [but with fewer overseas holidays and more visitors to Japan enjoying lower prices]. The USA can do like Japan. Americans are becoming accustomed to a reduced lifestyle involving food stamps, mortgagee sales and lower paid service jobs with smaller engines which don't guzzle so much gasoline.

Sell in May and go away. Maybe in April to beat the crowds.

We can coast through this year without armed insurrection in most of the world. So gold should bumble stumble along, fading somewhat as reality dawns that hyperinflationary warp speed takes a lot of energy to get to in financial relativity theory [as it just in regular relativity theory].

30 June 2013 $1,317

Mqurice

To: carranza2 who wrote (100013)	4/17/2013 5:19:57 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217588

heart-warming photo, the faith gather in front of gold shop (name in both chinese and thai language) in bangkok this day, all queue-d up, to engage w/ salvation, but alas, only order-taking and limited orders at that the drubbing of gold is his gift take the gift

To: carranza2 who wrote (100013)	6/26/2013 2:50:09 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Recommended By Snowshoe Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217588

Looks as though Mq was right about the dead cat bounce C2. <30 JUNE* 2013 $1,317* > It was definitely a dead cat. I had thought $1,280 originally but upped it a bit to $1,317 as such a large slide so soon seemed unlikely, but the skids are on and $1,250 is on the board, below even the $1,280. There could be a little lift, but gold does look done and now Big Ben is going to start the unwind in a glorious victory over the Gold Bug doomsters to celebrate his handover to the incoming Federal Reserve Chief. The Doomsters should be delighted because they still have their gold safety net, but have not been called on to survive on it, which is a very good thing, because the global collapse and hyperinflationary destruction of the world's financial system is not now. Surviving that would not be fun, even with a big pile of gold, which might or might not be usable. So it's the best outcome for Gold Bugs - they still have their gold and did not get the financial disaster they expected. Wheeee!!!! One ounce of gold is still worth exactly one ounce of gold. To Hell with Goedel and that self-referential stuff. Mqurice