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To: John Vosilla who wrote (133140)	4/17/2013 10:17:05 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 149317

Vehicle miles traveled has been in free-fall; well, parachute involved. The amount of gasoline consumed reflects at least two different influences (1) the number of miles traveled, and (2) savings due to more fuel efficient cars. Based on data compiled by the US Department of Transportation, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) were rising by 2.2% per year prior to 2004, then suddenly flattened (Figure 4, below) about the time oil prices started to rise significantly. Figure 4. US vehicle miles traveled, actual (based on Department of Transportation data) and expected based on prior trend. 2012 is based on partial year data. The drop in vehicle miles traveled greatly affects gasoline sales. If vehicle miles traveled had continued to rise as quickly as in the early period, we would expect automobile mileage to be 21% higher than my current projection for the full year 2012, and gasoline use would be equivalently higher. Message 28701895