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Technology Stocks : C-Cube -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (26165)	12/5/1997 2:24:00 AM
From: JPM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

In Short: There will be a dramatic slowdown in all of the Asian economies which will severely hurt their imports of American goods, including Cubes. Rarebird... First, China does not have a financial crisis... if you will use your brain, you will notice that all of the Asian debacles have stemmed from a collapse of their currency... this is not possible in China since their currency is not tradeable... Secondly... Cube's products sold to China are not American imports... rather, they are Taiwanese imports... and with the Taiwanese currency losing 50% of its value this year, you have a massive reduction in production costs for CUBE... which means more profits! Jp

To: Rarebird who wrote (26165)	12/5/1997 8:08:00 AM
From: coopie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

Hi Rarebird, That was an interesting post. I disagree with much of it, but it was interesting. Tell me, with your view that "the sky is falling" sort to speak, is shorting CUBE for a 50% profit from here (using your numbers) the best trade out there. If your view is correct, I would think you might be able to find companies that would go all the way under, not just 50%. Also, why won't you answer the "cash-flow question"? I am sure there are readers of this thread that would like to know if you intentionally tried to mislead them, or if you are just not financially astute. Good Luck.

To: Rarebird who wrote (26165)	12/5/1997 8:48:00 AM
From: BillyG	Respond to of 50808

Rarebird, still no facts on China, just "confidential rumors." Besides, there is a gaping hole in your argument that CUBE's price will fall because of problems in China. Your argument doesn't square with your theory that the current market price of CUBE stock reflects future events. If so, then CUBE's current stock price already reflects any China problem. You can't have it both ways -- nice try, though. I first got into CUBE stock by trading in and out. However, I learned enough about CUBE to be confident about its long term prospects, and the future of the digital video marketplace in general, so it's a long term play for me. Hell, even Intel has just now belately decided that digital video is a good place for it to be. I don't have all my money in CUBE, and it would be unwise for anyone to put all their money in one stock. I still trade in and out of other stocks, but CUBE is long term for me. No doubt you are making money now by shorting CUBE, and that's fine. Are you going to ride it back up when it bottoms? BTW, remember when I advised PeterV to get into Rambus this summer, and we both made about 30-40% in one week? You jumped all over me for giving investment advice on this thread. Now you are advising everyone that CUBE is a dog. I guess it's O.K. for a N.Y. philosopher to give advice that applies to everyone but himself. You can't have it both ways -- nice try, though. Negative cash flow? My, you are informed, aren't you?

To: Rarebird who wrote (26165)	12/5/1997 9:42:00 AM
From: JPM	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50808

"My contacts (which are confidential so don't bother to ask)"... Rarebird, are these contacts of the same reliable quality as where you got information on CUBE's negative cash flow? Thanks in advance, Jp

To: Rarebird who wrote (26165)	12/5/1997 1:00:00 PM
From: Trieu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

Check out the big brain on Rarebird. Not only are you an expert on financial statement analysis, but you're also an international economics guru. Ha! Thailands credit rating has been downgraded for the third time this year to a notch above junk bonds by Moody's Investors rating service. How will the perceived credit quality of Thailand debt mean doom for Cube? Seriously, I really wanna know. Pricing pressures have begun to affect Cube. Where have you been for the last year? What's pricing pressure? Never heard of it. ESST sure knows about it. Witness the pricing pressures and lack of demand in the disk drive sector. What lack of demand? Who did you rip this idea from? The problem in the disk drive market is obviously oversupply. Your "analysis" is worthless. How about an original thought or useful information for once?

To: Rarebird who wrote (26165)	12/5/1997 3:17:00 PM
From: BillyG	Respond to of 50808

Treasury Secretary Rubin on China.......... Business Week, December 8, 1997 December 8, 1997 SECTION: BUSINESS WEEK INTERNATIONAL EDITIONS; Asian Cover Story: THE ASIAN CRISIS; Number 3556; Pg. 29 LENGTH: 705 words HEADLINE: THERE'S NO REASON WHY WE CAN'T WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THIS' HIGHLIGHT: U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin talks about Asia BODY: He looks weary from dealing with Asia's financial woes, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin sounds confident about the outlook for stanching the crisis. In a Nov. 25 interview with BUSINESS WEEK Washington Senior News Editor Owen Ullmann and Economics Correspondent Mike McNamee, Rubin said Asia seems to be coming to grips with the need for economic reform. And he predicted that the crisis won't infect the healthy U.S. economy. Key excerpts: Q: Was the U.S. slow to recognize the magnitude of the problems in Asia? A: No. We have been ahead of the curve from the beginning. We were focused on Thailand long before there was general recognition of its problems. We played a very constructive role. Q: The U.S. has been criticized for its reluctance to provide aid of its own. What should the U.S. role be? A: It's a case-by-case situation. In Thailand, the IMF [International Monetary Fund] package was sufficient, and there wasn't yet the atmosphere of contagion that developed by the time we got to Indonesia. So I think we did exactly the right thing. Q: How is the U.S. leading now? A: We have people in Indonesia. The Manila program [a new IMF fund] was framed by a letter [Federal Reserve Chairman] Alan Greenspan and I sent that reflected the importance of having a sound approach to dealing with the problems of the region. Q: Do you see signs that the contagion is still raging? When does it end? A: It's very hard to judge. I think what's not hard to judge is what is the right thing to do. That is for each of these countries to implement policies that will put them on a sound footing. There's a very healthy recognition that the path out of this is for countries to implement sound policies and to stick with them. The sooner that happens, the sooner we'll get through this period. Q: Is China possibly next? A: Um. Well, I think I'm not going to get involved in individual countries. But I think it's worth noting that the Chinese government has set forth an ambitious and market-oriented program for their economy. Q: How threatened is the world financial system by what's happening in Asia? A: There's no reason why we can't work our way through this. Q: Is Asia facing a liquidity squeeze or a structural crisis? A: At heart these are structural and macroeconomic issues. Those are the issues that South Korea needs to focus on. Q: Does the IMF have sufficient resources to handle these problems? A: The resources exist to deal with the issues we face, assuming that countries do what they need to do. If they reestablish credibility and confidence, then capital will begin flowing again. Q: You recently wrote a letter to your Japanese counterpart, Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka. What did you say? A: I discussed the importance of domestic demand-led growth, not having sustained trade imbalances, and getting ahead of the curve with respect to financial-sector problems. Q: Japan's 10th-largest bank and fourth-largest brokerage have failed, with more failures expected. How should Tokyo deal with its financial woes? A: They should learn from mistakes we made. If you go back to the [U.S.] savings and loan crisis, we didn't get ahead of the curve. As a result, it was much more expensive. The lesson is: When there are problems, deal with them quickly. Q: How sick are Japan's banks? A: I don't think it's for me to speculate. The key is for them to take appropriate measures quickly. Q: Some Wall Street traders fear Japanese banks will dump Treasuries, sending U.S. interest rates soaring. How likely is that possibility? A: It's certainly not the way I look at it. There may be people who need liquidity. There also may be others who want to reallocate funds more toward what they think the safest places may be. So long as our fundamentals and our policies are in good shape, I'm not concerned about our bond market. Also, the federal government's net financing requirements are going down enormously. Q: How will the problems in Asia affect the U.S. economy? A: I don't think anything that has happened so far would change my view that the most likely scenario is solid growth and continued low inflation.

To: Rarebird who wrote (26165)	12/6/1997 1:30:00 AM
From: Dan Spillane	Respond to of 50808

Rarebird, are you at all an economist? You analysis overlooks: 1) The fact that the most widespread price drops due to the Asian slowdown will have a positive macroeconomic effect. That is, crude and intermediate goods will be cheaper, as will be assembly costs outside the US. These crude and intermediate goods underpin the entire economy, by the way. Cheaper prices here mean HIGHER MARGINS for US companies. Now, granted...some US-made finished goods will face inreased price pressure in the world market. Notably, automobiles. Oh, by the way...many US companies either make things in these countries or have very recently decided to expand production in these countries. And, by the way, the boost in exports from Asian countries due to currency changes can only help the economies of said Asian countries. Have you looked at recent trade balance statistics? 2) You don't mention DVD at all. What about the prospects here? Dan *** (Part of your analysis below) Asian Financial Crisis to hit Cube real hard in 98: The whole Asian financial crisis is incomprehensible to members of this thread as the bad debt coupounding the currency crisis is significantly higher than anything faced in the USA