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To: Rarebird who wrote (423759)	4/18/2013 3:04:26 PM
From: Horgad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

A 50% retrace of the runup from 2008 lows to the top of 1900 is around 1320. We hit that or got pretty close to it intraday. So it is plausible that POG has already bottomed. Also we are very close in the percentage drop now to what happened in 2008. 2008 was just slightly more I believe. However what I find the most bothersome is that the miners still seem to be foretelling a lower gold price. The worst case scenario, I think, would be a range centered around about 950 and a long wait for the next bull to start. That would be about equivalent to the 1980 drop that occurred when that gold bull ended and a broad range developed that lasted for 25 years. However like you I do not think that it is likely that this gold bull is over. So the bottom of this shake-out should be somewhere north of 950.

To: Rarebird who wrote (423759)	4/18/2013 3:44:49 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I tend to agree with you in that I see little evidence that anyone in a prominent position is singing the song of danger due to Fed madness. Further a classic bull top would be where the fed does start to tighten, but everyone laughs and says it's too late. That said I wouldn't be surprised to see equities cut in 1/2 from the top, in which case there could be lots of collateral damage in various metals shares near term. DAK